The regular season has come to an end, which means bowl season is at hand. The almost final College Playoff Rankings have been released, subject to change after the Army-Navy Game. Navy should be a huge favorite in that matchup, so these final rankings will likely not change much.  

1              Alabama              10-0 2              Ohio State           11-1 3              Clemson              11-1 4              Washington        11-1 5              Michigan              10-2 6              Wisconsin            10-2 7              Penn State          10-2 8              Colorado              10-2 9              Oklahoma           9-2 10           Oklahoma State                9-2 11           USC        9-3 12           Florida State       9-3 13           Louisville              9-3

14           Auburn 8-4 15           Florida  8-3 16           West Virginia     9-2 17           Western Michigan           12-0 18           Stanford              9-3 19           Navy      9-2 20           Utah      8-4 21           LSU        7-4 22           Tennessee          8-4 23           Virginia Tech      9-3 24           Houston               9-3 25           Pittsburgh           8-4

It’s only the second year of the new College Football Playoff Format, but the grumblings are already reaching a fevered pitch. Looking at the almost-final regular season rankings, it’s easy to see why. There are no less than five four-loss teams in the top 25 chosen by the committee. LSU, at 21, has only seven wins this season. There are seven three-loss teams ranked in the top 25. USF is not ranked, but two American Athletic Conference teams are. Navy, whom USF thumped handily, is 19, while Houston is 24. Navy beat Houston during the regular season, but anyone who watched USF blowout Navy should not rank them but not the Bulls, provided the records are similar. Anyone who believed the playoff system would be somewhat fair, reasonable, or unbiased, will be very disappointed with the results. Aside from first place and undefeated Alabama, the other rankings are debatable, making this no more of a real playoff than the BCS system was, and at least that “committee” consisted of 100s of voters and computer ranking systems.

As usual, the AP Poll, discussed on USF Blog previously, will be next.

1              Alabama              2              Ohio State           3              Clemson              4              Washington        5              Michigan              6              Wisconsin            7              Oklahoma           8              Penn State          9              Colorado              10           USC        11           Oklahoma State                12           Florida State       13           Western Michigan

14           West Virginia     15           Florida  16           Louisville              17           Stanford              18           Auburn 19           Virginia Tech      20           Navy      21           LSU        22           Iowa      23           Nebraska             24           Pittsburgh           24           South Florida     168

Finally, the Bulls make their top 25 debut. They are in a tie with Pittsburgh for 24^th, with 168 vote points, up from an unofficial 30^th with 24 points last week. Those two rankings are the highest given to USF all season by the AP voters. Navy is 19^th and Houston has the bad luck of being the first man out, ranked an unofficial 26^th. Those rankings are subject to and probably will change after bowl season.

The overall trend for USF in the AP Poll has been upward. For lack of better data, the value of 50 was given for all weeks when they did not receive votes. That gives the suggestion that there were some big valleys in their ranking, but the reality is that there is no data to support those weeks.

The USA Coaches Poll has tracked a bit better for USF all season, but top 25 honors have alluded them. The methodology of this poll was detailed on a previous USF Blog posting.

1              Alabama              2              Ohio State           3              Clemson              4              Washington        5              Wisconsin            6              Michigan              7              Oklahoma           8              Penn State          9              Colorado              10           Oklahoma State                11           USC        12           Florida State       13           West Virginia

14           Western Michigan           15           Louisville              16           Florida  17           Stanford              18           Virginia Tech      19           Auburn 20           Navy      21           LSU        22           Nebraska             23           South Florida     24           Utah      25           Iowa

All season long, the USA Today Coaches’ Poll has liked the Bulls better than the AP Poll. That’s no different this week, as they finally make this poll as well, debuting at 23^rd. Navy, the only other AAC team ranked, is 20^th.   USF received 237 vote points in this week’s poll. For context, #25 Iowa received about half, 114. Last week, they received 46 vote points and were ranked an unofficial 30^th. Houston ranks an unofficial 26^th.

USF has an overall upward trajectory in the Coaches’ poll. As was the case with the AP Poll, the weeks when they did not receive votes, a value of 50 was assumed just to make the numbers work. As it turned out, they only had one week when they didn’t receive any vote points in this poll. For the weeks that they did receive votes, the grouping is very nice, keeping well with the upward curve.

The CBS 128 is the first of the computer modeled polls, explained in an earlier post on USF Blog.

1              Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) 2              Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) 3              Clemson Tigers (11-1) 4              Washington Huskies (11-1) 5              Michigan Wolverines (10-2) 6              Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) 7              Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) 8              Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) 9              Southern California Trojans (9-3) 10           Colorado Buffaloes (10-2) 11           Western Michigan Broncos (12-0) 12           Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-2) 13           Florida State Seminoles (9-3)

14           West Virginia Mountaineers (9-2) 15           Florida Gators (8-3) 16           Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3) 17           Louisville Cardinals (9-3) 18           Auburn Tigers (8-4) 19           LSU Tigers (7-4) 20           Navy Midshipmen (9-2) 21           Stanford Cardinal (9-3) 22           South Florida Bulls (10-2) 23           Boise State Broncos (10-2) 24           Washington State Cougars (8-4) 25           Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3)

As has been the case with the AP and Coaches’ poll, Houston has been dropped from the top 25 and effectively replaced by USF. The Bulls rank 22^nd in this poll, two spots below #20 Navy, whom they beat. This is the highest rank they have held in the this ranking system, but were ranked this high in Week 4, as well.

Despite their final ranking being the highest for the Bulls all season, the overall trend is downward. This ranking system really preferred what USF was doing early in the season over what it did at the end of the season. This suggests that the methodology prefers big scoring differences over high overall scores and close victories. That said, six of the 14 weeks of rankings, this poll ranked USF higher than all others, with an average rank of 27^th.

Congrove CCR 128 is one of the many factors that goes into the Massey Composite, shown below. It is a computer ranking system, explained previously on USF Blog.

1              Alab 2              Ohio St 3              WMU 4              Wash 5              Clem 6              Mich 7              Wisc 8              Okla 9              PSU 10           OkSt 11           Colo 12           USC 13           Navy

14           FSU 15           WKU 16           Lville 17           USF 18           WVU 19           Boise 20           VT 21           Stan 22           Hou 23           SD St 24           App St 25           Temple

The best ranking of the season in any of the ranking systems monitored in this series appears this week in the Congrove CCR 128, where they rank 17^th. That’s four spots lower than Navy and five spots higher than Houston. This ranking system has ranked USF higher than the other rankings eight of the 14 weeks, an average rank of 26^th.

This ranking system has one of the more interesting graphs, with three peaks and two clear valleys. What makes this interesting is that the methodology seems to reward for winning streaks. Each time they lost, dropped more than ten spots in the rankings, but progressively rose again with each win. This system appears less volatile than others, some of which have big weekly variances, even when the team kept on winning.

ESPN’s Football Power Index, explained on USF Blog, is next.

1              Alabama, SEC 2              OSU, Big Ten 3              Michigan, Big Ten 4              Clemson, ACC 5              Washington, Pac-12 6              Louisville, ACC 7              LSU, SEC 8              Oklahoma, Big 12 9              FSU, ACC 10           USC, Pac-12 11           Auburn, SEC 12           Wisconsin, Big Ten 13           Colorado, Pac-12 14           Penn State, Big Ten 15           Texas A&M, SEC 16           Miami, ACC 17           Oklahoma State, Big 12 18           Washington St, Pac-12

19           Tennessee, SEC 20           West Virginia, Big 12 21           Stanford, Pac-12 22           UNC, ACC 23           W Michigan, MAC 24           Florida, SEC 25           Pitt, ACC 26           VT, ACC 27           Iowa, Big Ten 28           TCU, Big 12 29           Ole Miss, SEC 30           Boise State, MW 31           Houston, American 32           BYU, FBS Indep. 33           Utah, Pac-12 34           W Kentucky, C-USA 35           Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 36           USF, American

The ESPN Football Power Index is a bit of a head-scratcher. No AAC team makes their top 25. Houston is 31^st and USF is 36^th. What is strange isn’t that the ranking is low, but that it is way out of range with the other ranking systems. Even the early season FPI had USF ranked as high as 23^rd in Week 4. Despite winning all but one game since then, they are just eight spots higher than their season worst 44^th. Navy, whom most rank in the top 25, are ranked 45^th in the FPI.

This ranking system stands out as an anomaly to the rest, with a downward trend in rankings for the Bulls, despite a respectable ten-win season. For context, they were only ranked lower three times this year. This trend suggests that they liked the Bulls scoring a lot of points and limiting their opponents, as they did the first half of the season. When the games got closer, however, the rankings dropped. For example, they’re punished more for those close wins over SMU and Memphis than they were for losing to FSU and Temple.

The Massey Composite ranking combines more than 100 different ranking systems and averages the total ranks by team. The methodology is explained on USF Blog.

1              Alab 2              Ohio St 3              Clem 4              Mich 5              Wash 6              Wisc 7              Colo 8              PSU 9              USC 10           Okla 11           FSU 12           WMU 13           LSU

14           Stan 15           Auburn 16           Lville 17           WVU 18           OkSt 19           Fla 20           Wash St 21           Boise 22           VT 23           USF 24           Iowa 25           Navy

USF posts a season high in the Massey Composite Index ranking, as well, coming in at 23^rd. This is the only ranking system in this series where USF is highest ranked of AAC teams, this week. Navy, who is 25^th here, and Houston, 31^st, are typically ranked higher. Since this index is the result of more than a hundred ranking systems, it probably best presents the consensus ranking, nationally. It happens to correlate nicely with the two major polls, this week.

The overall trend in this system has been upward, with a pretty close grouping, demonstrating consistency. USF dropped after each loss, but both drops were measured, and the increase afterwards, steady. Again, with the volume of systems being used, moderation should be expected.

The final system being reviewed in this series is Sagarin. The methodology for this ranking system can be found on an earlier USF Blog posting.

1              Alab 2              Ohio St 3              Mich 4              Clem 5              Wash 6              Okla 7              Wisc 8              LSU 9              USC 10           Lville 11           Colo 12           FSU 13           Auburn 14           PSU 15           Wash St 16           Stan 17           TexA&M

18           Mia FL 19           OkSt 20           VT 21           WVU 22           WMU 23           Iowa 24           Fla 25           UTK 26           Hou 27           UNC 28           Pitt 30           Utah 31           BYU 33           Boise 34           Neb 35           USF

The Sagarin ranking system did not do very well rating the Bulls this year. They have ranked them lower than any other system reviewed here, eight of the 14 weeks. Six of those weeks, they ranked them 40^th or worse. This system has shown itself to be an unreliable measure when compared to the vast majority of other ranking systems, including those in the Massey Composite, of which it is a factor. They rank USF 35^th and Houston 26^th. No AAC teams break the top 25 of this methodology. There appears to be an emphasis on ranking teams that are in the playoff conferences in this system. For example, four-loss Washington State is ranked 15^th. Two spots higher is four-loss Auburn. The only system ranking USF worse this week is the ESPN FPI.

This is the second graph to show a downward trend line for the Bulls. This system has ranked USF lower than 39^th in each of the previous five weeks, and never higher than 34^th.

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