USF has finally started to gain some ground in the AP Poll. The AP Poll is the poll of writers, described in depth in Week 4.
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1 Alabama 2 Ohio State 3 Michigan 4 Clemson 5 Washington 6 Texas A&M 7 Louisville 8 Nebraska 9 Baylor 10 Wisconsin 11 Houston 12 West Virginia 13 Florida State 14 Boise State 15 Florida 16 Oklahoma 17 Arkansas 18 Tennessee 19 Utah 20 Western Michigan 21 Auburn 22 North Carolina |
23 Ole Miss 24 Navy 25 LSU 26 Colorado 27 South Florida 28 Miami (FL) 29 Oklahoma State 30 Washington State 31 Virginia Tech 32 North Carolina State 33 Stanford 34 Memphis 35 San Diego State 36 Troy 37 Pittsburgh 38 USC 38 Arizona State 38 TCU 41 Iowa 42 Appalachian State 43 BYU 43 Tulsa |
The Bulls have had some trouble being taken seriously by the media. That’s not all that surprising, considering how many of them remember being embarrassed in 2007. Of all the polls analyzed in this segment, this has been the most doubtful of USF. They were a preseason 41 in this ranking, but dropped to receiving no votes in the second and third polls. Receiving 108 vote points, up from just 20 last week, they sit in the 27th unofficial spot, with just Colorado and LSU between them and the top 25. Navy has joined Houston for second week in representing the AAC in the AP Poll. Tulsa and Memphis have also begun to get votes.
Next up is the USA Today Coaches’ poll, which was explained in a previous week.
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1 Alabama 2 Ohio State 3 Clemson 4 Michigan 5 Washington 6 Texas A&M 7 Louisville 8 Baylor 9 Nebraska 10 Wisconsin 11 Houston 12 Florida 13 West Virginia 14 Boise State 15 Florida State 16 Oklahoma 17 Arkansas 18 Utah 19 Tennessee 20 Western Michigan 21 North Carolina 22 Ole Miss |
23 LSU 24 Auburn 25 Navy 26 Colorado 27 South Florida 28 Miami (FL) 29 Oklahoma State 30 Washington State 31 Virginia Tech 32 North Carolina State 33 Stanford 34 Memphis 35 San Diego State 36 Troy 37 Pittsburgh 38 USC 38 Arizona State 38 TCU 41 Iowa 42 Appalachian State 43 BYU 43 Tulsa |
Interestingly, while this poll and the AP Poll do have many differences, the AAC teams are in almost exactly the same spots in both polls. The Bulls are 27th in both polls. The only difference as far as AAC teams are concerned is that Navy is 24th in the AP and 25th in the Coaches’ poll. This poll has had more respect for USF throughout the season than the AP Poll has. They have been as low as 47th and reach their high vote total this week, with the same 108 vote points found in the AP Poll. The Coache’s Poll have ranked USF an average position of 37.
The CBS 128 is next. The methodology of this ranking was explained on a previous posting.
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1 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) 3 Michigan Wolverines (6-0) 4 Clemson Tigers (7-0) 5 Washington Huskies (6-0) 6 Louisville Cardinals (5-1) 7 Texas A&M Aggies (6-0) 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-0) 9 Baylor Bears (6-0) 10 Wisconsin Badgers (4-2) 11 Houston Cougars (6-1) 12 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-0) 13 Boise State Broncos (6-0) 14 Oklahoma Sooners (4-2) 15 Florida State Seminoles (5-2) 16 Western Michigan Broncos (7-0) 17 Florida Gators (5-1) 18 Tennessee Volunteers (5-2) 19 Arkansas Razorbacks (5-2) 20 Auburn Tigers (4-2) 21 Colorado Buffaloes (5-2) 22 North Carolina Tar Heels (5-2) 23 Utah Utes (6-1) 24 Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes (4-2) 25 Ole Miss Rebels (3-3) 26 LSU Tigers (4-2) 27 Southern California Trojans (4-3) 28 Virginia Tech Hokies (4-2) 29 Washington State Cougars (4-2) 30 South Florida Bulls (6-1) 31 Navy Midshipmen (4-1) 32 San Diego State Aztecs (5-1) 33 Troy Trojans (5-1) 34 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-2) 35 Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-2) 36 Toledo Rockets (5-1) 37 Pittsburgh Panthers (5-2) 38 Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2) 39 Appalachian State Mountaineers(4-2) 40 TCU Horned Frogs (4-2) 41 Memphis Tigers (5-1) 42 Air Force Falcons (4-2) 43 Stanford Cardinal (4-2) 44 North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-2) 45 Brigham Young Cougars (4-3) 46 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) 47 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-2) 48 UCLA Bruins (3-4) 49 Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-2) 50 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-2) 51 Indiana Hoosiers (3-3) 52 Central Michigan Chippewas (5-2) 53 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-3) 54 Kansas State Wildcats (3-3) 55 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (4-2) 56 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-3) 57 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-3) 58 Texas Longhorns (3-3) 59 Army Black Knights (4-2) 60 Georgia Bulldogs (4-3) 61 Maryland Terrapins (4-2) 62 California Golden Bears (3-3) 63 Northwestern Wildcats (3-3) 64 Akron Zips (4-3) |
65 Temple Owls (4-3) 66 Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-3) 67 Old Dominion Monarchs (4-2) 68 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (4-3) 69 Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-2) 70 Georgia Southern Eagles (3-3) 71 Ohio Bobcats (4-3) 72 Cincinnati Bearcats (3-3) 73 Boston College Eagles (3-3) 74 Vanderbilt Commodores (3-4) 75 Ball State Cardinals (4-3) 76 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-5) 77 UCF Knights (3-3) 78 Syracuse Orange (3-4) 79 Colorado State Rams (3-4) 80 Wyoming Cowboys (4-2) 81 Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-4) 82 Michigan State Spartans (2-4) 83 South Alabama Jaguars (3-3) 84 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (3-3) 85 Missouri Tigers (2-4) 86 Kentucky Wildcats (3-3) 87 Connecticut Huskies (3-4) 88 New Mexico Lobos (3-3) 89 Tulane Green Wave (3-3) 90 Utah State Aggies (2-4) 91 Duke Blue Devils (3-4) 92 South Carolina Gamecocks (2-4) 93 UNLV Rebels (3-4) 94 Idaho Vandals (4-3) 95 Oregon Ducks (2-4) 96 Virginia Cavaliers (2-4) 97 Arizona Wildcats (2-5) 98 Purdue Boilermakers (3-3) 99 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-4) 100 Georgia State Panthers (1-5) 101 La.-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (2-4) 102 North Texas Mean Green (3-3) 103 Oregon State Beavers (2-4) 104 East Carolina Pirates (2-4) 105 Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-4) 106 Illinois Fighting Illini (2-4) 107 Florida International Golden Panthers (3-4) 108 Northern Illinois Huskies (1-6) 109 Southern Methodist Mustangs (2-4) 110 Nevada Wolf Pack (3-4) 111 Texas State Bobcats (2-4) 112 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-4) 113 New Mexico State Aggies (2-4) 114 Marshall Thundering Herd (2-4) 115 Iowa State Cyclones (1-6) 116 San Jose State Spartans (2-5) 117 Bowling Green Falcons (1-6) 118 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-5) 119 Massachusetts Minutemen (1-6) 120 Kent State Golden Flashes (2-5) 121 Fresno State Bulldogs (1-6) 122 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (1-6) 123 Kansas Jayhawks (1-5) 124 Rice Owls (0-6) 125 Texas-El Paso Miners (1-5) 126 Florida Atlantic Owls (1-6) 127 Charlotte 49ers (2-5) 128 Buffalo Bulls (1-5) |
The CBS 128 had been one of the more favorable ranking systems for the Bulls, until this week. They had USF at 25 last week, as high as 22 in the past five weeks, with an average of 25th over that span. Whatever the methodology is, it clearly noticed that the Huskies were still in the game in the fourth quarter because it dropped USF five full spots, the most of any system reviewed here. In fact, only one AAC team makes the top 25 of this ranking, Houston.
New to this series this week, is the Congrove Computer Rankings CCR 128. The CCR 128 is a computer based ranking system that creates a rating by combining win-loss records with power ratings to determine the rankings.
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1 Alab 2 Ohio St 3 Mich 4 Wash 5 Clem 6 WMU 7 Lville 8 TexA&M 9 Hou 10 Neb 11 Boise 12 Baylor 13 WVU 14 Wisc 15 LSU 16 FSU 17 Memp 18 USF 19 Utah 20 Okla 21 Toledo 22 Fla 23 UTK 24 SD St 25 Wash St 26 OkSt 27 Auburn 28 Stan 29 Navy 30 Mia FL 31 Ark 32 Pitt 33 UNC 34 VT 35 App St 36 Colo 37 NC St 38 Iowa 39 Troy 40 TCU 41 OlMis 42 USC 43 BYU 44 PSU 45 NWestern 46 WKU 47 CMU 48 AirF 49 Ariz St 50 MTSU 51 ODU 52 Tulsa 53 Army 54 Wake 55 Texas 56 Minn 57 UGA 58 Cal 59 KSU 60 IU 61 Wyo 62 La Tech 63 UCLA 64 TX Tech |
65 Temple 66 Mich St 67 UMD 68 GT 69 So Miss 70 EMU 71 Ga So 72 UKY 73 Miss St 74 Cincy 75 UNM 76 Akron 77 Ohio 78 Duke 79 Ball St 80 Oreg 81 BC 82 Marsh 83 Vandy 84 Mizz 85 UCF 86 N Dame 87 Purdue 88 UConn 89 Syr 90 Idaho 91 Tulane 92 UtSt 93 UTSA 94 Nev 95 SAla 96 UIUC 97 UVA 98 Ariz 99 UNT 100 Col St 101 ECU 102 UNLV 103 SCar 104 UHM 105 OrSt 106 GA St 107 Ark St 108 SMU 109 ULL 110 Kent 111 FIU 112 N Mex St 113 SJ St 114 NIU 115 Rutg 116 ULM 117 Buf 118 Texas St 119 B Green 120 Iowa St 121 Kan 122 Charl 123 UTEP 124 Mia OH 125 Rice 126 FL Atl 127 Fres St 128 UMass |
In this system, the Bulls come in at number 18. They’re actually the third highest ranked AAC team in this ranking, where they’re second in most. What is interesting is that it is not Navy that surpasses them, but Memphis. This system has consistently ranked USF in the top 25, excepting after their first win, when they were 34th, and the week they lost to FSU, when the dropped from 20th to 32nd.
Next up is the ESPN Football Power Index. Explained previously, the FPI is the only ranking listed here that uses computer simulations to determine how good teams are.
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1 Alabama 2 Michigan 3 OSU 4 Louisville 5 Clemson 6 Washington 7 Texas A&M 8 LSU 9 FSU 10 Auburn 11 Oklahoma 12 Ole Miss 13 USC 14 Miami 15 Colorado 16 Wisconsin 17 Florida 18 Tennessee 19 Baylor 20 West Virginia 21 W Michigan 22 Oklahoma State 23 Houston 25 UNC 26 UCLA 27 Nebraska 28 USF 29 Stanford 30 Boise State 31 TCU 32 Pitt 33 Arkansas 34 VT 35 Texas 36 BYU 37 NC State 38 Iowa 39 Penn State 40 Kansas State 41 Utah 42 Georgia 43 Notre Dame 44 Cal 45 Texas Tech 46 Missouri 47 Memphis 48 Georgia Tech 49 Northwestern 50 Miss St 51 Oregon 52 Arizona State 53 Toledo 54 Minnesota 55 Wake Forest 56 Vanderbilt 57 Temple 58 San Diego State 59 Troy 60 Duke 61 Appalachian St 62 Arizona 63 Maryland 64 W Kentucky |
65 Navy 66 Michigan State 67 South Carolina 68 Indiana 69 Tulsa 70 Army 71 LA Tech 72 Cent Michigan 73 Syracuse 74 UCF 75 Air Force 76 Kentucky 77 Mid Tennessee 78 UVA 79 Illinois 80 Iowa State 81 Boston College 82 Cincinnati 83 Southern Miss 84 Utah State 85 Ga Southern 86 Oregon State 87 UConn 88 ECU 89 Wyoming 90 Ball State 91 N Illinois 92 Old Dominion 93 Purdue 94 New Mexico 95 Tulane 96 SMU 97 Colorado State 98 UNLV 99 Marshall 100 Ohio 101 Akron 102 Arkansas State 103 Georgia State 104 Nevada 105 Rutgers 106 Kent State 107 Hawai'i 108 San Jose State 109 Kansas 110 E Michigan 111 South Alabama 112 UTSA 113 Idaho 114 Miami (OH) 115 Fresno State 116 North Texas 117 FAU 118 LA-Lafayette 119 Rice 120 UMass 121 Bowling Green 122 UL Monroe 123 FIU 124 Texas State 125 Buffalo 126 New Mexico St 127 Charlotte 128 UTEP |
The ESPN Football Power Index is not a fan of the AAC. The top team, Houston, is in the top 15 of most other rankings. Here, they’re just five spots higher than USF’s 28th ranking. No other team from The American ranks higher than 46th. The Bulls dropped one spot from last week’s 27th spot. The highest ranking they’ve had in these simulations was 22 in week three.
The Fornelli 50 has been dropped from this series for several reasons. The methodology was never explained, and the up and down rankings from week to week seemed not to make a lot of sense for team that has won five of the past six weeks. So, it has been replaced by the Massey College Football Ranking Composite.
The Massey Ratings are a composite of 103 different ranking systems. Some, like the AP and Coaches’ Poll, are already represented in this analysis. However, combined with the other 100+ ratings, it gives a more comprehensive ranking system, which dilutes the human bias in those two major polls.
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1 Alabama 2 Michigan 3 Ohio St 4 Clemson 5 Texas A&M 6 Washington 7 Louisville 8 W Michigan 9 Nebraska 10 Florida St 11 West Virginia 12 Houston 13 Wisconsin 14 Tennessee 15 Boise St 16 Auburn 17 Oklahoma 18 Florida 19 Colorado 20 Baylor 21 Washington St 22 Arkansas 23 Stanford 24 USC 25 Mississippi 26 LSU 27 South Florida 28 North Carolina 29 Utah 30 Miami FL 31 Virginia Tech 32 Penn St 33 Memphis 34 Troy 35 Pittsburgh 36 NC State 37 Navy 38 Toledo 39 Arizona St 40 BYU 41 Oklahoma St 42 Wake Forest 43 UCLA 44 Appalachian St 45 Iowa 46 TCU 47 Minnesota 48 Georgia Tech 49 Northwestern 50 San Diego St 51 Georgia 52 Kansas St 53 California 54 Indiana 55 Tulsa 56 C Michigan 57 Air Force 58 Wyoming 59 Maryland 60 Temple 61 Texas 62 Oregon 63 Texas Tech 64 WKU |
65 MTSU 66 Kentucky 67 Louisiana Tech 68 UCF 69 Vanderbilt 70 Syracuse 71 Old Dominion 72 Missouri 73 Duke 74 E Michigan 75 Akron 76 Ga Southern 77 Mississippi St 78 Army 79 Southern Miss 80 Connecticut 81 Boston College 82 Oregon St 83 Notre Dame 84 Colorado St 85 Michigan St 86 Cincinnati 87 Tulane 88 Idaho 89 Arizona 90 South Carolina 91 Virginia 92 Illinois 93 Ohio 94 Utah St 95 New Mexico 96 East Carolina 97 Ball St 98 South Alabama 99 Purdue 100 UT San Antonio 101 Arkansas St 102 UNLV 103 Rutgers 104 SMU 105 N Illinois 106 Hawaii 107 Iowa St 108 Georgia St 109 North Texas 110 Marshall 111 ULM 112 ULL 113 Kent 114 Bowling Green 115 Nevada 116 Texas St 117 Florida Intl 118 New Mexico St 119 Kansas 120 San Jose St 121 Miami OH 122 Massachusetts 123 Fresno St 124 Charlotte 125 Rice 126 FL Atlantic 127 Buffalo 128 UTEP |
In spite of the wide diversity of polling in the composite, USF’s 27th ranking falls in line with the other ranking systems. Their highest rank in the composite is 15th by CSL and a low ranking of 76 by Denzenzio TSRS. CSL uses an algorithm that compounds wins to come up with rankings. In that system, the wins of the teams beaten by a particular team are accumulated three levels deep. The same is done for the losses of those teams. The difference between the two is normalized into a rating that predicts winners accurately 75% of the time, according to them. TSRS stands for True Statistical Ratings and is produced by a gambling website.
The Oddsshark rankings have been considered for going the way of Fornelli because they seem out of line with what most other systems think of USF. They are not the only computer ranking system that does this, though, so they will remain in the series for now.
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1 Alabama 2 Michigan 3 Ohio State 4 Washington 5 Louisville 6 Houston 7 Auburn 8 Clemson 9 USF 10 Washington State 11 WKU 12 Western Michigan 13 San Diego State 14 West Virginia 15 Boise State 16 Ole Miss 17 California 18 Oklahoma 19 Virginia Tech 20 Toledo 21 Nebraska 22 Wisconsin 23 Middle Tennessee 24 Troy 25 Tennessee 26 BYU 27 Memphis 28 LA Tech 29 Baylor 30 Appalachian State 31 Navy 32 Miami-FL 33 Iowa 34 Texas A&M 35 LSU 36 Arkansas 37 UCLA 38 TCU 39 Indiana 40 Temple 41 USC 42 Florida 43 Colorado 44 Ohio 45 Texas 46 Georgia Southern 47 Arkansas State 48 Stanford 49 Pittsburgh 50 Florida State 51 Southern Miss 52 Air Force 53 Army 54 Notre Dame 55 Georgia 56 Utah 57 Georgia State 58 NC State 59 Minnesota 60 Central Michigan 61 Texas Tech 62 North Carolina 63 Akron 64 Virginia |
65 Kansas State 66 Mississippi State 67 Northwestern 68 Oregon 69 Tulsa 70 Old Dominion 71 Maryland 72 Michigan State 73 Marshall 74 Arizona State 75 Oklahoma State 76 UTSA 77 Colorado State 78 East Carolina 79 Nevada 80 Georgia Tech 81 Duke 82 Penn State 83 Utah State 84 Wake Forest 85 Arizona 86 South Carolina 87 New Mexico 88 Miami-OH 89 Kentucky 90 South Alabama 91 UCONN 92 Iowa State 93 Illinois 94 Missouri 95 Cincinnati 96 Vanderbilt 97 UNLV 98 Boston College 99 San Jose State 100 Wyoming 101 Purdue 102 Idaho 103 Louisiana-Lafayette 104 NIU 105 Tulane 106 Syracuse 107 Eastern Michigan 108 Massachusetts 109 Fresno State 110 Buffalo 111 Florida Atlantic 112 New Mexico State 113 Ball State 114 Bowling Green 115 North Texas 116 SMU 117 Louisiana-Monroe 118 Kent State 119 UCF 120 UTEP 121 Hawaii 122 Oregon State 123 Texas State 124 Rutgers 125 Rice 126 FIU 127 Kansas 128 Charlotte |
Statistically anomalous, they rank the Bulls 9th. For that reason it doesn’t fit with the rest of the systems. However, if it is examined as a whole, the rest of it looks fine. So, there is something that USF is doing that this system likes a lot. It’s not this system that is the outlier. USF is the outlier in this system, and that’s interesting enough to watch for a few more weeks. They have ranked an average of 16th in this system since being ranked as low as 21 after the first week’s games were played.
The Sagarin Predictor rankings have been one of the most respected systems for decades. This system is also included in the Massey Composite, but it is making its own debut this week by request.
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1 Alab 2 Ohio St 3 Mich 4 Wash 5 Clem 6 Lville 7 TexA&M 8 LSU 9 Okla 10 OlMis 11 Auburn 12 Wisc 13 FSU 14 Hou 15 Baylor 16 Fla 17 Stan 18 WMU 19 USC 20 Wash St 21 UTK 22 Mia FL 23 Neb 24 VT 25 Colo 26 WVU 27 TCU 28 UCLA 29 Ark 30 Boise 31 OkSt 32 NC St 33 Iowa 34 UNC 35 USF 36 KSU 37 Memp 38 Utah 39 BYU 40 Pitt 41 Texas 42 PSU 43 N Dame 44 NWestern 45 GT 46 Toledo 47 Ariz St 48 Oreg 49 Minn 50 UGA 51 TX Tech 52 Cal 53 Miss St 54 IU 55 Navy 56 Mizz 57 Wake 58 Duke 59 Temple 60 Mich St 61 App St 62 SD St 63 Army 64 Troy |
65 UCF 66 WKU 67 Vandy 68 Ariz 69 Tulsa 70 UMD 71 AirF 72 MTSU 73 La Tech 74 Syr 75 UKY 76 SCar 77 UVA 78 UIUC 79 BC 80 CMU 81 Iowa St 82 UtSt 83 ECU 84 OrSt 85 Ga So 86 Cincy 87 UConn 88 So Miss 89 Col St 90 Wyo 91 Ohio 92 Akron 93 NIU 94 Ball St 95 Tulane 96 ODU 97 Ark St 98 Purdue 99 UNM 100 SMU 101 Marsh 102 UNLV 103 GA St 104 UHM 105 SAla 106 Nev 107 UTSA 108 Rutg 109 Kan 110 EMU 111 Kent 112 B Green 113 Idaho 114 SJ St 115 Fres St 116 UNT 117 UMass 118 Rice 119 ULL 120 Mia OH 121 FL Atl 122 ULM 123 FIU 124 Texas St 125 Buf 126 UTEP 127 N Mex St 128 Charl |
Sagarin uses a rating system to predict winners in any hypothetical matchup. The rating uses two score based calculations combined with a calculation that weights recent scoring activity at a higher value. USF is ranked 35th with a rating of 78.66. For context, the number one team in the system is Alabama, with a rating of 102.39. The Bulls were ranked as high as 34th in week four, and have averaged 39th since the season has begun.
