The poll watch continues as the Bulls stay on the cusp of being ranked through Week Five. In addition to the two big polls, this feature will now include other prominent media rankings to add context and diversity of opinion. The big media and coaches’ poll often reflect one another, which is probably an indication that they influence one another.
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1 Alabama 2 Ohio State 3 Clemson 4 Michigan 5 Washington 6 Houston 7 Louisville 8 Texas A&M 9 Tennessee 10 Miami (FL) 11 Wisconsin 12 Nebraska 13 Baylor 14 Ole Miss 15 Stanford 16 Arkansas 17 North Carolina 18 Florida 19 Boise State 20 Oklahoma 21 Colorado |
22 West Virginia 23 Florida State 24 Utah 25 Virginia Tech 26 Western Michigan 27 UCLA 28 LSU 29 North Dakota State 29 Auburn 31 Georgia 32 Oklahoma State 33 TCU 34 Maryland 35 Air Force 36 San Diego State 37 Michigan State 38 South Florida 39 Arizona State 40 Indiana 40 California 42 Texas |
The AP Poll is a media poll which allocates points of varying amounts to teams, totals the points, and ranks the teams. The poll is explained in detail here.
The Bulls remain outside the top 25, but they have moved up in the others receiving votes section. They received 6 points in votes this week, which is an unofficial 38th. In the previous week, they had received zero votes.
The USA Today Coaches’ Poll is the other poll of note in college football. As with the AP poll, the details of the poll rules have already been explained here.
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1 Alabama Crimson Tide (57) 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (3) 3 Clemson Tigers (2) 4 Michigan Wolverines 5 Houston Cougars 6 Washington Huskies 7 Texas A&M Aggies 8 Louisville Cardinals 9 Tennessee Volunteers 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 11 Baylor Bears 12 Nebraska Cornhuskers 13 Wisconsin Badgers 14 Ole Miss Rebels 15 Stanford Cardinal 16 North Carolina Tar Heels 17 Arkansas Razorbacks 18 Florida Gators 19 Boise State Broncos 20 West Virginia Mountaineers 21 Florida State Seminoles 22 Oklahoma Sooners 23 Colorado Buffaloes 24 Utah Utes 25 Western Michigan Broncos |
26 LSU 28 Maryland 29 Georgia 30 Air Force 31 Virginia Tech 32 UCLA 33 Oklahoma State 34 TCU 35 South Florida 36 Arizona State 37 Auburn 38 Texas Tech 39 San Diego State 40 California 41 Indiana 42 Troy 43 Minnesota 44 Southern Miss 45 USC 46 South Alabama 47 Wake Forest 48 Middle Tennessee 49 Eastern Michigan 50 Appalachian State |
USF fares a bit better in the coaches’ poll, receiving 24 vote points, to rank an unofficial 35th.
While not considered to be near the same level of importance of the AP and Coaches’ polls, these additional rankings by other media people give a bigger picture of how USF is viewed.
The CBS 128 ranks every team in the FBS division of college football. This ranking system was previously explained on this blog.
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1 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) 3 Clemson Tigers (5-0) 4 Louisville Cardinals (4-1) 5 Houston Cougars (5-0) 6 Michigan Wolverines (5-0) 7 Washington Huskies (5-0) 8 Texas A&M Aggies (5-0) 9 Tennessee Volunteers (5-0) 10 Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes (4-0) 11 Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-0) 12 Baylor Bears (5-0) 13 Wisconsin Badgers (4-1) 14 Ole Miss Rebels (3-2) 15 Stanford Cardinal (3-1) 16 Boise State Broncos (4-0) 17 Arkansas Razorbacks (4-1) 18 North Carolina Tar Heels (4-1) 19 Western Michigan Broncos (5-0) 20 Florida Gators (4-1) 21 Oklahoma Sooners (2-2) 22 West Virginia Mountaineers (4-0) 23 UCLA Bruins (3-2) 24 Colorado Buffaloes (4-1) 25 Air Force Falcons (4-0) |
26 South Florida Bulls (4-1) 27 Florida State Seminoles (3-2) 28 Utah Utes (4-1) 29 TCU Horned Frogs (3-2) 30 LSU Tigers (3-2) 31 Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1) 32 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-2) 33 Troy Trojans (4-1) 34 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (4-1) 35 Auburn Tigers (3-2) 36 Georgia Bulldogs (3-2) 37 Maryland Terrapins (4-0) 38 Michigan State Spartans (2-2) 39 Texas Longhorns (2-2) 40 San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) 41 Pittsburgh Panthers (3-2) 42 Toledo Rockets (3-1) 43 Southern California Trojans (2-3) 44 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-3) 45 Memphis Tigers (3-1) 46 Indiana Hoosiers (3-1) 47 Appalachian State Mountaineers (3-2) 48 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2) 49 California Golden Bears (3-2) 50 Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) |
The CBS ranking had USF in the top 25 prior to the FSU loss. Before the ECU win, they have USF 26th.
The next group of rankings are the ESPN Football Power Index. The FPI is an interesting ranking system because it doesn’t simply evaluate statistics like other computer rankings, nor is it just a reflection of the opinions of people, like writers and coaches. The FPI runs 10,000 game simulations to determine how much each team is above or below the average team. Like all ranking systems, it’s not an exact science and some biases can show up even in data. The index is updated daily during the season to reflect changes, like injuries to the teams and their opponents.
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1 OSU, Big Ten 2 Louisville, ACC 3 Alabama, SEC 4 Michigan, Big Ten 5 Clemson, ACC 6 FSU, ACC 7 Texas A&M, SEC 8 Washington, Pac-12 9 LSU, SEC 10 Ole Miss, SEC 11 Oklahoma, Big 12 12 Tennessee, SEC 13 Auburn, SEC 14 Miami, ACC 15 Houston, American 16 UNC, ACC 17 Oklahoma State, Big 12 18 UCLA, Pac-12 19 Wisconsin, Big Ten 20 Stanford, Pac-12 21 Florida, SEC 22 Nebraska, Big Ten 23 W Michigan, MAC 24 Baylor, Big 12 25 TCU, Big 12 26 USC, Pac-12 27 Colorado, Pac-12 28 USF, American 29 VT, ACC 30 Boise State, MW 31 Pitt, ACC 32 West Virginia, Big 12 33 Washington St, Pac-12 34 Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 35 Kansas State, Big 12 36 Texas, Big 12 37 Texas Tech, Big 12 38 Arkansas, SEC 39 Iowa, Big Ten 40 NC State, ACC 41 Georgia, SEC 42 Oregon, Pac-12 43 Miss St, SEC 44 BYU, FBS Indep. 45 Utah, Pac-12 46 Cal, Pac-12 47 Missouri, SEC 48 Memphis, American 49 Maryland, Big Ten 50 Arizona State, Pac-12 51 Penn State, Big Ten 52 Toledo, MAC 53 Georgia Tech, ACC 54 Arizona, Pac-12 55 Northwestern, Big Ten 56 Michigan State, Big Ten 57 Troy, Sun Belt 58 Vanderbilt, SEC 59 South Carolina, SEC 60 Wake Forest, ACC 61 San Diego State, MW 62 Minnesota, Big Ten 63 Temple, American 64 Appalachian St, Sun Belt |
65 Air Force, MW 66 W Kentucky, C-USA 67 Tulsa, American 68 Cent Michigan, MAC 69 Duke, ACC 70 Boston College, ACC 71 UCF, American 72 Indiana, Big Ten 73 Southern Miss, C-USA 74 Army, FBS Indep. 75 Navy, American 76 LA Tech, C-USA 77 Syracuse, ACC 78 Cincinnati, American 79 UVA, ACC 80 Illinois, Big Ten 81 Kentucky, SEC 82 Mid Tennessee, C-USA 83 Iowa State, Big 12 84 Ga Southern, Sun Belt 85 Utah State, MW 86 Rutgers, Big Ten 87 Marshall, C-USA 88 ECU, American 89 Ohio, MAC 90 UConn, American 91 New Mexico, MW 92 Oregon State, Pac-12 93 Purdue, Big Ten 94 N Illinois, MAC 95 Ball State, MAC 96 Wyoming, MW 97 Old Dominion, C-USA 98 UNLV, MW 99 Akron, MAC 100 Tulane, American 101 San Jose State, MW 102 SMU, American 103 Nevada, MW 104 Arkansas State, Sun Belt 105 Colorado State, MW 106 Georgia State, Sun Belt 107 South Alabama, Sun Belt 108 Kansas, Big 12 109 Miami (OH), MAC 110 Hawai'i, MW 111 Kent State, MAC 112 E Michigan, MAC 113 LA-Lafayette, Sun Belt 114 Fresno State, MW 115 FAU, C-USA 116 UMass, FBS Indep. 117 Rice, C-USA 118 Idaho, Sun Belt 119 UTSA, C-USA 120 UL Monroe, Sun Belt 121 Buffalo, MAC 122 North Texas, C-USA 123 Texas State, Sun Belt 124 New Mexico St, Sun Belt 125 FIU, C-USA 126 UTEP, C-USA 127 Bowling Green, MAC 128 Charlotte, C-USA |
This ranking system suggests the Bulls are a way above average team. As in the CBS ranking, they are sitting just outside the top 25 at 28th. Two weeks ago, USF was ranked 23rd in this system.
While this blog nor its contributors recommend that people gamble, gambling has been and will always will be a big part of sports. People in groups, are able to make amazingly accurate predictions when money is on the line. Ever game line and favorite picked is based on information from gambling organizations. So, it stands to reason that those individuals may have good measurement methods of their own. In that vein, the Oddsshark Power Rankings are being added to the review.
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1 Ohio State 2 Alabama 3 Michigan 4 Washington 5 Louisville 6 Houston 7 San Diego State 8 Western Michigan 9 WKU 10 Southern Miss 11 Oklahoma 12 Auburn 13 Clemson 14 Ole Miss 15 Toledo 16 USF 17 Troy 18 Boise State 19 Memphis 20 Tennessee 21 Wisconsin 22 Washington State 23 North Carolina 24 Air Force 25 TCU 26 LA Tech 27 California 28 Arkansas 29 Virginia Tech 30 Nebraska 31 Stanford 32 Navy 33 UCLA 34 Mississippi State 35 Middle Tennessee 36 Baylor 37 West Virginia 38 BYU 39 Notre Dame 40 LSU 41 Georgia Southern 42 Iowa 43 Temple 44 Michigan State 45 Appalachian State 46 Oregon 47 Texas A&M 48 Florida 49 Florida State 50 Arkansas State 51 Colorado 52 Indiana 53 Texas 54 Utah 55 Miami-FL 56 Georgia State 57 NC State 58 Marshall 59 Georgia 60 Akron 61 Ohio |
65 Maryland 66 Kansas State 67 USC 68 Pittsburgh 69 East Carolina 70 Arizona State 71 Nevada 72 Northwestern 73 Oklahoma State 74 Minnesota 75 Utah State 76 Cincinnati 77 Army 78 Tulsa 79 New Mexico 80 Penn State 81 South Carolina 82 Colorado State 83 Iowa State 84 Missouri 85 Arizona 86 Georgia Tech 87 Massachusetts 88 San Jose State 89 Old Dominion 90 Boston College 91 South Alabama 92 Duke 93 Kentucky 94 Bowling Green 95 UCONN 96 NIU 97 Miami-OH 98 New Mexico State 99 Illinois 100 Buffalo 101 Louisiana-Lafayette 102 Florida Atlantic 103 UNLV 104 Vanderbilt 105 Tulane 106 Wake Forest 107 Wyoming 108 UTSA 109 Fresno State 110 Syracuse 111 Purdue 112 Idaho 113 Ball State 114 Rutgers 115 Texas State 116 SMU 117 UTEP 118 Eastern Michigan 119 North Texas 120 Kent State 121 Louisiana-Monroe 122 Oregon State 123 UCF 124 Rice 125 FIU 126 Hawaii 127 Kansas 128 Charlotte |
The Oddsshark method uses a rolling ten game period of time to analytically compare statistics. This technique is designed to unhide the types of things that a win / loss record would mask by the nature of how many games have been played during the season. For example, each team may start with a 0-0 record, but nobody believes that all teams are equal in their ability. The rolling totals method should give evaluators continuity in team evaluation. The happen to like what USF is doing, ranking them 16th overall, currently, and two weeks they had them at 13th.
The final ranking system to be included in this series is the Fornelli 50. The Fornelli 50 is named for its creator, Tom Fornelli, a sports writer with CBS Sports. Fornelli has devised his own formula based on statistics and not opinions for evaluating the top 50 teams in the country. He does not publish the formula, but notes that it is heavily weighted for winning. Even though he claims this is statistics based, it’s worth pointing out this is just one person’s way to analyze the numbers.
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1 Ohio State 4-0 (Last week -- 1) 2 Alabama 5-0 (4) 3 Washington 5-0 (8 4 Michigan 5-0 (3) 5 Louisville 4-1 (2) 6 Miami 4-0 (5) 7 Boise State 4-0 (7) 8 Houston 5-0 (12) 9 Nebraska 5-0 (11) 10 Maryland 4-0 (22) 11 Baylor 5-0 (10) 12 Texas A&M 5-0 (14) 13 Western Michigan 5-0 (24) 14 Tennessee 5-0 (17) 15 Clemson 5-0 (25 16 Florida 4-1 (15) 17 Air Force 4-0 (18) 18 Army West Point 3-1 (19) 19 Colorado 4-1 (37) 20 South Florida 4-1 (28) 21 Memphis 3-1 (6) 22 Wisconsin 4-1 (13) 23 West Virginia 4-0 (27) 24 Indiana 3-1 (29) 25 Troy 4-1 (42) |
26 Virginia Tech 3-1 (23) 27 Southern Miss 4-1 (41) 28 Auburn 3-2 (46) 29 NC State 3-1 (39) 30 North Carolina 4-1 (36) 31 Toledo 3-1 (9) 32 UCLA 3-2 (47) 33 Stanford 3-1 (16) 34 Arkansas 4-1 (40) 35 Middle Tennessee 4-1 (50) 36 Iowa 3-2 (21) 37 TCU 3-2 (20) 38 Texas Tech 3-1 (NR) 39 Ole Miss 3-2 (NR) 40 California 3-2 (NR) 41 LSU 3-2 (NR) 42 Utah 4-1 (26) 43 Temple 3-2 (NR) 44 Minnesota 3-1 (32) 45 Arizona State 4-1 (34) 46 Wake Forest 4-1 (38) 47 San Diego State 3-1 (30) 48 Tulsa 3-1 (NR) 49 Ohio 3-2 (NR) 50 Mississippi State 2-2 (45) |
This method ranks USF 20th in the nation, and includes three other conference members from the American Athletic Conference. This posting was late as opposed to not at all because there was a delay in reporting the AP and Coaches' poll this week due to Hurricane Matthew. Another Poll Watch story will post this week after these numbers have been updated.
