Twelve college football weeks have come and gone and there is no clear path to the football playoff for USF. Temple has to lose to one of two bad opponents or the Bulls have to find a way to get ranked high. The playoff poll is again omitted due to not including USF.

As usual, the AP Poll, discussed on USF Blog previously, will be first on the docket.

1              Alabama

2              Ohio State

3              Louisville

4              Michigan

5              Clemson

6              Wisconsin

7              Washington

8              Oklahoma

9              Penn State

10           West Virginia

11           Utah

12           Colorado

13           Oklahoma State

14           Western Michigan

15           USC

16           LSU

17           Florida State

18           Auburn

19           Nebraska

20           Washington State

21           Florida

22           Boise State

23           Texas A&M

24           San Diego State

25           Troy

26           Houston

27           North Carolina

28           Virginia Tech

29           Tennessee

30           Navy

31           Stanford

32           Western Kentucky

33           Pittsburgh

34           South Florida

35           Arkansas

36           Iowa

37           Ole Miss

38           Minnesota


USF comes in at #34 this week, four spots lower than Navy, who they beat, who is four spots lower than Houston, who they beat. We’re nearing the end of the season and not a single AAC team is in the top 25 of this poll. This isn’t even the best ranking for USF, who keeps on winning, in this poll. They peaked at 31 two weeks ago. Just eight vote points were awarded to USF. Note who is ranked 25th. Troy is ranked higher than USF.

The USA Coaches Poll has tracked a bit better for USF all season, but top 25 honors have alluded them. The methodology of this poll was detailed on a previous USF Blog posting.

1              Alabama

2              Ohio State

3              Louisville

4              Michigan

5              Clemson

6              Wisconsin

7              Washington

8              Oklahoma

9              West Virginia

10           Penn State

11           Utah

12           Colorado

13           Oklahoma State

14           LSU

15           Florida State

16           Auburn

17           Nebraska

18           Florida

19           USC

20           Washington State

21           Western Michigan

22           Texas A&M

23           Boise State

24           North Carolina

25           San Diego State

26           Houston

27           Navy

27           South Florida

29           Virginia Tech

30           Troy

31           Tennessee

32           Stanford

33           Pittsburgh

34           Arkansas

35           Toledo

36           Baylor

37           Iowa

For reasons that cannot be easily explained, the same three AAC teams near the bottom of “others getting votes” in the AP poll get a lot more respect in the Coaches’ poll. They still sit just outside the top 25, with Houston at 26, Navy and USF tied at 27. While getting just eight vote points in the AP Poll, the Bulls get a whopping 43 in this one. And, before the question comes up, there are no USF coaching connections to the Coaches’ poll. This unofficial rank of 27th ties the highest that they have been ranked in this poll all season.

The CBS 128 is the first of the computer modeled polls, explained in an earlier post on USF Blog.

1              Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0)

2              Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1)

3              Louisville Cardinals (9-1)

4              Clemson Tigers (9-1)

5              Michigan Wolverines (9-1)

6              Washington Huskies (9-1)

7              Wisconsin Badgers (8-2)

8              Oklahoma Sooners (8-2)

9              Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2)

10           Southern California Trojans (7-3)

11           West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1)

12           Western Michigan Broncos (10-0)

13           Colorado Buffaloes (8-2)

14           Auburn Tigers (7-3)

15           Utah Utes (8-2)

16           Washington State Cougars (8-2)

17           LSU Tigers (6-3)

18           Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-2)

19           Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2)

20           Florida Gators (7-2)

21           Boise State Broncos (9-1)

22           San Diego State Aztecs (9-1)

23           Florida State Seminoles (7-3)

24           Texas A&M Aggies (7-3)

25           Virginia Tech Hokies (7-3)

26           South Florida Bulls (8-2)

 

USF tops the conference in ranking in this system, at 26th. Houston and Navy are not listed, but they rank 29th and 31st respectively. Throughout the ups and downs of the season, USF’s rank has changed, but this system has given them an average rank of 27th, which is very close to where they are this week. The worst they have been ranked is 31st.   Something nice about ranking all the teams is that the volatility is minimized. You can see a big picture, contrasted with the two major polls, where getting ranked 25 one week and zero votes the next makes it look as if a team went from very good to very bad in a week.

Congrove CCR 128 is one of the many factors that goes into the Massey Composite, shown below. It is a computer ranking system, explained previously on USF Blog.

1              Alab

2              Ohio

3              Mich

4              WMU

5              Lvil

6              Wash

7              Clem

8              SD St

9              Wisc

10           Okla

11           Wash St

12           Boise

13           WVU

14           OkSt

15           PSU

16           Utah

17           Colo

18           LSU

19           FSU

20           USC

21           USF

22           Hou

23           Troy

24           Toledo

25           Auburn

26           Navy


This computer ranking system likes what the Bulls are doing, which suggests the methodology believes that scoring lots of points wins more games. They come in at #21 here, with Houston at 22nd and Navy at 26th. In this system, the Bulls peaked at 18th in Week 8, dropped to 34th after the Temple loss, and gradually have climbed back up. Troy, who makes the cut in the AP Poll, is two spots lower than USF, here. This system ranks USF higher than any other system, this week.

ESPN’s Football Power Index, explained on USF Blog, is next.

1              Alabama, SEC

2              Michigan, Big Ten

3              OSU, Big Ten

4              Louisville, ACC

5              Clemson, ACC

6              LSU, SEC

7              Washington, Pac-12

8              Auburn, SEC

9              FSU, ACC

10           Oklahoma, Big 12

11           USC, Pac-12

12           Texas A&M, SEC

13           Wisconsin, Big Ten

14           Washington St, Pac-12

15           Colorado, Pac-12

16           Ole Miss, SEC

17           Tennessee, SEC

18           Miami, ACC

19           UNC, ACC

20           West Virginia, Big 12

21           Penn State, Big Ten

22           Stanford, Pac-12

23           Oklahoma State, Big 12

24           Florida, SEC

25           W Michigan, MAC

26           Boise State, MW

27           UCLA, Pac-12

28           TCU, Big 12

29           Utah, Pac-12

30           Pitt, ACC

31           VT, ACC

32           BYU, FBS Indep.

33           Texas, Big 12

34           Notre Dame, FBS Indep.

35           Baylor, Big 12

36           Houston, American

37           Iowa, Big Ten

38           San Diego State, MW

39           USF, American

All of the ranking systems covered here show USF going up in ranking after beating Memphis last weekend, except two. ESPN’s FPI is one of the two. The Bulls dropped from 34th last week to 39th this week. This is below their average rank of 33rd and way off of their season high rank of 23rd in Week 4. While the Bulls have continued to win games, the margin of victory has been much smaller. That is probably a key factor in this ranking strategy. The Bulls are still scoring more than 40 points per game, but they’re barely beating their opponents now, as opposed to winning by 20, as they had early on in the season. It’s interesting to think that USF could win ten regular season games, but be completely out of the ESPN FPI top 40.

The Massey Composite ranking combines more than 100 different ranking systems and averages the total ranks by team. The methodology is explained on USF Blog.

1              Alab

2              Ohio

3              Mich

4              Clem

5              Lvil

6              Wash

7              Wisc

8              PSU

9              USC

10           WMU

11           Colo

12           Wash St

13           Auburn

14           Okla

15           LSU

16           FSU

17           WVU

18           Boise

19           TexA&M

20           Stan

21           Neb

22           Utah

23           UTK

24           Fla

25           OkSt

26           UNC

27           VT

28           USF

The Massey Composite ranking for USF is 28th, their third best showing of the season. The team peaked at 26th in week four and spent two weeks at 27th in weeks seven and eight. No AAC team ranks higher than USF in the composite, which speaks volumes about the way the conference is viewed. Houston is 30th and Navy is 35th in this average of many ranking systems.

The final system being reviewed in this series is Sagarin. The methodology for this ranking system can be found on an earlier USF Blog posting.

1              Alab

2              Ohio

3              Mich

4              Lvil

5              Clem

6              Wash

7              LSU

8              Wisc

9              Auburn

10           Okla

11           Wash St

12           USC

13           TexA&M

14           Colo

15           FSU

16           Stan

17           PSU

18           OlMis

19           WVU

20           Mia FL

21           UTK

22           WMU

23           Fla

24           VT

25           OkSt

26           UNC

27           TCU

28           Utah

29           Boise

30           Neb

31           Iowa

32           UCLA

33           Hou

34           BYU

35           Pitt

36           NWestern

37           Baylor

38           SD St

39           Texas

40           KSU

41           Ark

42           N Dame

43           USF


Sagarin’s methodology hates USF and is not a fan of the AAC in general. This week’s rank of 43rd in Sagarin’s model is the third worst ranking this season, behind 58 and 54 in preseason and after the first week play. Further, it has been the lowest rank of any system featured here for seven weeks throughout the season. The only other system lower are the opinion based polls of the AP, which did not rank USF at any point in the season. Three weeks they received no votes and two weeks when Sagarin ranked them 34, the AP ranked them unofficially 38th. For further context, consider the Massey Composite Index ranking, which includes this system, as well as more than a 100 different rankings,

blog comments powered by Disqus