Twelve college football weeks have come and gone and there is no clear path to the football playoff for USF. Temple has to lose to one of two bad opponents or the Bulls have to find a way to get ranked high. The playoff poll is again omitted due to not including USF.
As usual, the AP Poll, discussed on USF Blog previously, will be first on the docket.
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1 Alabama 2 Ohio State 3 Louisville 4 Michigan 5 Clemson 6 Wisconsin 7 Washington 8 Oklahoma 9 Penn State 10 West Virginia 11 Utah 12 Colorado 13 Oklahoma State 14 Western Michigan 15 USC 16 LSU 17 Florida State 18 Auburn 19 Nebraska |
20 Washington State 21 Florida 22 Boise State 23 Texas A&M 24 San Diego State 25 Troy 26 Houston 27 North Carolina 28 Virginia Tech 29 Tennessee 30 Navy 31 Stanford 32 Western Kentucky 33 Pittsburgh 34 South Florida 35 Arkansas 36 Iowa 37 Ole Miss 38 Minnesota |
USF comes in at #34 this week, four spots lower than Navy, who they beat, who is four spots lower than Houston, who they beat. We’re nearing the end of the season and not a single AAC team is in the top 25 of this poll. This isn’t even the best ranking for USF, who keeps on winning, in this poll. They peaked at 31 two weeks ago. Just eight vote points were awarded to USF. Note who is ranked 25th. Troy is ranked higher than USF.
The USA Coaches Poll has tracked a bit better for USF all season, but top 25 honors have alluded them. The methodology of this poll was detailed on a previous USF Blog posting.
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1 Alabama 2 Ohio State 3 Louisville 4 Michigan 5 Clemson 6 Wisconsin 7 Washington 8 Oklahoma 9 West Virginia 10 Penn State 11 Utah 12 Colorado 13 Oklahoma State 14 LSU 15 Florida State 16 Auburn 17 Nebraska 18 Florida 19 USC |
20 Washington State 21 Western Michigan 22 Texas A&M 23 Boise State 24 North Carolina 25 San Diego State 26 Houston 27 Navy 27 South Florida 29 Virginia Tech 30 Troy 31 Tennessee 32 Stanford 33 Pittsburgh 34 Arkansas 35 Toledo 36 Baylor 37 Iowa |
For reasons that cannot be easily explained, the same three AAC teams near the bottom of “others getting votes” in the AP poll get a lot more respect in the Coaches’ poll. They still sit just outside the top 25, with Houston at 26, Navy and USF tied at 27. While getting just eight vote points in the AP Poll, the Bulls get a whopping 43 in this one. And, before the question comes up, there are no USF coaching connections to the Coaches’ poll. This unofficial rank of 27th ties the highest that they have been ranked in this poll all season.
The CBS 128 is the first of the computer modeled polls, explained in an earlier post on USF Blog.
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1 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) 3 Louisville Cardinals (9-1) 4 Clemson Tigers (9-1) 5 Michigan Wolverines (9-1) 6 Washington Huskies (9-1) 7 Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) 8 Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) 9 Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2) 10 Southern California Trojans (7-3) 11 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1) 12 Western Michigan Broncos (10-0) 13 Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) |
14 Auburn Tigers (7-3) 15 Utah Utes (8-2) 16 Washington State Cougars (8-2) 17 LSU Tigers (6-3) 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-2) 19 Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2) 20 Florida Gators (7-2) 21 Boise State Broncos (9-1) 22 San Diego State Aztecs (9-1) 23 Florida State Seminoles (7-3) 24 Texas A&M Aggies (7-3) 25 Virginia Tech Hokies (7-3) 26 South Florida Bulls (8-2) |
USF tops the conference in ranking in this system, at 26th. Houston and Navy are not listed, but they rank 29th and 31st respectively. Throughout the ups and downs of the season, USF’s rank has changed, but this system has given them an average rank of 27th, which is very close to where they are this week. The worst they have been ranked is 31st. Something nice about ranking all the teams is that the volatility is minimized. You can see a big picture, contrasted with the two major polls, where getting ranked 25 one week and zero votes the next makes it look as if a team went from very good to very bad in a week.
Congrove CCR 128 is one of the many factors that goes into the Massey Composite, shown below. It is a computer ranking system, explained previously on USF Blog.
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1 Alab 2 Ohio 3 Mich 4 WMU 5 Lvil 6 Wash 7 Clem 8 SD St 9 Wisc 10 Okla 11 Wash St 12 Boise 13 WVU |
14 OkSt 15 PSU 16 Utah 17 Colo 18 LSU 19 FSU 20 USC 21 USF 22 Hou 23 Troy 24 Toledo 25 Auburn 26 Navy |
This computer ranking system likes what the Bulls are doing, which suggests the methodology believes that scoring lots of points wins more games. They come in at #21 here, with Houston at 22nd and Navy at 26th. In this system, the Bulls peaked at 18th in Week 8, dropped to 34th after the Temple loss, and gradually have climbed back up. Troy, who makes the cut in the AP Poll, is two spots lower than USF, here. This system ranks USF higher than any other system, this week.
ESPN’s Football Power Index, explained on USF Blog, is next.
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1 Alabama, SEC 2 Michigan, Big Ten 3 OSU, Big Ten 4 Louisville, ACC 5 Clemson, ACC 6 LSU, SEC 7 Washington, Pac-12 8 Auburn, SEC 9 FSU, ACC 10 Oklahoma, Big 12 11 USC, Pac-12 12 Texas A&M, SEC 13 Wisconsin, Big Ten 14 Washington St, Pac-12 15 Colorado, Pac-12 16 Ole Miss, SEC 17 Tennessee, SEC 18 Miami, ACC 19 UNC, ACC 20 West Virginia, Big 12 |
21 Penn State, Big Ten 22 Stanford, Pac-12 23 Oklahoma State, Big 12 24 Florida, SEC 25 W Michigan, MAC 26 Boise State, MW 27 UCLA, Pac-12 28 TCU, Big 12 29 Utah, Pac-12 30 Pitt, ACC 31 VT, ACC 32 BYU, FBS Indep. 33 Texas, Big 12 34 Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 35 Baylor, Big 12 36 Houston, American 37 Iowa, Big Ten 38 San Diego State, MW 39 USF, American |
All of the ranking systems covered here show USF going up in ranking after beating Memphis last weekend, except two. ESPN’s FPI is one of the two. The Bulls dropped from 34th last week to 39th this week. This is below their average rank of 33rd and way off of their season high rank of 23rd in Week 4. While the Bulls have continued to win games, the margin of victory has been much smaller. That is probably a key factor in this ranking strategy. The Bulls are still scoring more than 40 points per game, but they’re barely beating their opponents now, as opposed to winning by 20, as they had early on in the season. It’s interesting to think that USF could win ten regular season games, but be completely out of the ESPN FPI top 40.
The Massey Composite ranking combines more than 100 different ranking systems and averages the total ranks by team. The methodology is explained on USF Blog.
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1 Alab 2 Ohio 3 Mich 4 Clem 5 Lvil 6 Wash 7 Wisc 8 PSU 9 USC 10 WMU 11 Colo 12 Wash St 13 Auburn 14 Okla |
15 LSU 16 FSU 17 WVU 18 Boise 19 TexA&M 20 Stan 21 Neb 22 Utah 23 UTK 24 Fla 25 OkSt 26 UNC 27 VT 28 USF |
The Massey Composite ranking for USF is 28th, their third best showing of the season. The team peaked at 26th in week four and spent two weeks at 27th in weeks seven and eight. No AAC team ranks higher than USF in the composite, which speaks volumes about the way the conference is viewed. Houston is 30th and Navy is 35th in this average of many ranking systems.
The final system being reviewed in this series is Sagarin. The methodology for this ranking system can be found on an earlier USF Blog posting.
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1 Alab 2 Ohio 3 Mich 4 Lvil 5 Clem 6 Wash 7 LSU 8 Wisc 9 Auburn 10 Okla 11 Wash St 12 USC 13 TexA&M 14 Colo 15 FSU 16 Stan 17 PSU 18 OlMis 19 WVU 20 Mia FL 21 UTK 22 WMU |
23 Fla 24 VT 25 OkSt 26 UNC 27 TCU 28 Utah 29 Boise 30 Neb 31 Iowa 32 UCLA 33 Hou 34 BYU 35 Pitt 36 NWestern 37 Baylor 38 SD St 39 Texas 40 KSU 41 Ark 42 N Dame 43 USF |
Sagarin’s methodology hates USF and is not a fan of the AAC in general. This week’s rank of 43rd in Sagarin’s model is the third worst ranking this season, behind 58 and 54 in preseason and after the first week play. Further, it has been the lowest rank of any system featured here for seven weeks throughout the season. The only other system lower are the opinion based polls of the AP, which did not rank USF at any point in the season. Three weeks they received no votes and two weeks when Sagarin ranked them 34, the AP ranked them unofficially 38th. For further context, consider the Massey Composite Index ranking, which includes this system, as well as more than a 100 different rankings,