The Poll Watch continues, even though USF is unlikely to break the top 25 this year, considering they have two losses to teams who have losses of their own. However, half the season has passed with the blog in monitoring mode, it made sense to watch a little longer, if nothing else but to see what happens. For brevity, only polls that rank USF and only those teams above USF will be listed here, going forward.
The AP Poll had been the poll leading off this segment. Since USF lost to Temple, they received zero votes in the AP Poll, this week. This is the fourth week that the Bulls received zero votes, despite receiving votes in the preseason and having an unofficial poll rank as high as 27 the week before the Temple loss.
The USA Today Coaches’ Poll has been much friendlier to USF the entire season than has the AP Poll. This week marks the first week all season that the Bulls have received zero votes in the Coaches’ Poll. The takeaway here is: don’t lose to Temple.
The rest of the ranking systems in this segment are much less meaningful than the two voter polls, but can still be interesting to watch because of how they influence the media.
The CBS 128, the methodology having been explained on a previous posting, is listed below.
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1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) 2 Michigan Wolverines (7-0) 3 Clemson Tigers (7-0) 4 Washington Huskies (7-0) 5 Louisville Cardinals (6-1) 6 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) 7 Texas A&M Aggies (6-1) 8 West Virginia Mountaineers (6-0) 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-0) 10 Baylor Bears (6-0) 11 Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) 12 Boise State Broncos (7-0) 13 Auburn Tigers (5-2) 14 Oklahoma Sooners (5-2) 15 LSU Tigers (5-2) 16 Florida State Seminoles (5-2) |
17 Western Michigan Broncos (8-0) 18 Florida Gators (5-1) 19 Colorado Buffaloes (6-2) 20 Utah Utes (7-1) 21 Tennessee Volunteers (5-2) 22 Virginia Tech Hokies (5-2) 23 Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2) 24 Washington State Cougars (5-2) 25 North Carolina Tar Heels (6-2) 26 Navy Midshipmen (5-1) 27 Houston Cougars (6-2) 28 Southern California Trojans (4-3) 29 San Diego State Aztecs (6-1) 30 Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-2) 31 South Florida Bulls (6-2) |
USF dropped in this ranking system, but just one spot, from 30th to 31st. What is interesting about this system and their ranking is that it had already been trending downward, from a peak of 22 in Week 3 to 25th in Week 7 to 30th in Week 8. They were being penalized more for lowered production than for their loss, which just cost them one point.
Congrove CCR 128 is next up, with methodology discussed on previous USF Blog postings.
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1 Alab 2 Mich 3 Wash 4 Clem 5 Ohio St 6 Lville 7 WMU 8 Boise 9 WVU 10 Baylor 11 Neb 12 TexA&M 13 LSU 14 Wisc 15 Utah 16 FSU 17 Okla |
18 Auburn 19 SD St 20 Toledo 21 Fla 22 UTK 23 Navy 24 Wash St 25 OkSt 26 Hou 27 UNC 28 VT 29 Pitt 30 Colo 31 App St 32 Memp 33 Troy 34 USF |
USF falls hard and fast in this ranking, from 18 last week, to 34th this week. Their 18th ranking was their season high, and they had been 20th or higher in all but one of the past six weeks. The Memphis Tigers have passed the Bulls in this system. The only AAC team in the top 25 is Navy.
ESPN’s Football Power Index shows a stable ranking for the Bulls. The FPI strategy was discussed on a previous USF Blog posting.
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1 Alabama, SEC 2 Michigan, Big Ten 3 Louisville, ACC 4 OSU, Big Ten 5 Clemson, ACC 6 Washington, Pac-12 7 Auburn, SEC 8 LSU, SEC 9 Texas A&M, SEC 10 FSU, ACC 11 Ole Miss, SEC 12 Oklahoma, Big 12 13 Colorado, Pac-12 14 USC, Pac-12 15 Wisconsin, Big Ten 16 West Virginia, Big 12 17 Florida, SEC |
18 Tennessee, SEC 19 Baylor, Big 12 20 Oklahoma State, Big 12 21 UNC, ACC 22 Miami, ACC 23 Washington St, Pac-12 24 W Michigan, MAC 25 VT, ACC 26 Nebraska, Big Ten 27 UCLA, Pac-12 28 Boise State, MW 29 Stanford, Pac-12 30 Pitt, ACC 31 Houston, American 32 Penn State, Big Ten 33 USF, American |
The fall is a mere five spots in the ESPN Football Power Index, from 28th to 33rd. That is only one spot worse than the average ranking of 32nd that the FPI has given the Bulls this season. Like several of the other systems have shown, they were dropping before the Temple game was even played. Another noteworthy item, here, is that Navy is not ranked above the Bulls, as in other rankings. The statistically driven FPI ranks the Midshipmen 61st.
The Massey Composite Index, detailed in last week’s USF Blog posting, combines many ranking systems together and averages those ratings to come up with a final rating. The Congrove 128, Sagarin Ratings, AP, and USA Today Coaches’ Poll are all factored into this composite of more than 100 ranking systems.
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1 Alab 2 Mich 3 Clem 4 Ohio St 5 Wash 6 Lville 7 TexA&M 8 WVU 9 WMU 10 Auburn 11 Wisc 12 Boise 13 Neb 14 UTK 15 Colo 16 FSU 17 Baylor 18 LSU |
19 Fla 20 Wash St 21 Okla 22 PSU 23 Utah 24 VT 25 USC 26 UNC 27 Hou 28 Stan 29 Toledo 30 Troy 31 Pitt 32 Navy 33 OlMis 34 Mia FL 35 USF |
The composite shows great stability in ranking for the Bulls. They peaked at 26th in Week 4 and were 27th the two weeks prior to the Temple loss. This week, they slipped to 35th, this week. Navy and Houston rank a little higher than USF.
Sagarin Ratings wrap up this week’s Poll Watch. USF Blog discussed the Sagarin methodology a week ago.
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1 Alab 2 Mich 3 Ohio St 4 Clem 5 Wash 6 Lville 7 Auburn 8 LSU 9 TexA&M 10 Wisc 11 Okla 12 OlMis 13 FSU 14 Baylor 15 WVU 16 Fla 17 VT 18 Colo 19 USC 20 Wash St |
21 UTK 22 Stan 23 WMU 24 Neb 25 Mia FL 26 Boise 27 Hou 28 OkSt 29 UCLA 30 UNC 31 PSU 32 TCU 33 Utah 34 Iowa 35 KSU 36 BYU 37 Pitt 38 Texas 39 USF |
Sagarin is another system that ranks the Bulls as the second highest team in the AAC, at 39th. USF has ranked an average of 41st in this ranking system, so their actually a little higher than their average. In three weeks prior to their last loss, the Bulls had an average rank of 35.
The Oddsshark Power Rankings were one of the systems dropped from the chart due to being a statistical outlier. For reasons unknown, their system loves the Bulls. Post defeat, they dropped from 9th to 14th. They average a rank of 19th and peaked last week at nine.