Who: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. #18 / #15 USF Bulls
What: College football game
When: Saturday, October 14th, 2017 at 7:30 PM EDT
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Why: American Athletic Conference game
The Bearcats of the University of Cincinnati are headed to Tampa to visit the University of South Florida Bulls for the 14th time in the history of the series, which the Bearcats lead, 8-5. Those same Bearcats have struggled this season, going 2-4 after being annihilated by UCF in their last game, which the Knights won 51-23 in just three quarters of play (the final quarter was canceled due to weather issues). The only two teams to have given Cincinnati a victory were Austin Peay and Miami (OH), games they won by a combined 16 points.
Things are going much better for the Bulls, who are 5-0 and ranked in the top 20 in both major polls. They’re coming off a blowout win of their own, 61-31 over ECU, two weeks ago. Saturday’s game will be USF’s homecoming celebration.
USF Offense
Things are beginning to click for the USF offense, who have sometimes experienced slow starts in games, early this season. The Bulls will take the field with the #5 scoring offense in the nation, averaging nearly 45 points per game. The power horse of that top offense is the 5th most productive stable of rushers in the country. It has been a one-two punch of running backs, Darius Tice and D’Ernest Johnson, with a little bit of quarterback, Quinton Flowers, thrown into the mix to keep it interesting. Tice and Johnson are averaging 87 yards apiece per game rushing, with Tice scoring seven Times and Johnson finding the end zone four times. Flowers isn’t far behind, with 79 yards per game on average and five rushing touchdowns.
Flowers’ passing game amounts to 187 yards per game, with ten touchdowns and two interceptions. The overwhelming majority of those passes have been to senior receiver, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has 322 yards on 22 catches, scoring 3 touchdowns.
Cincinnati Defense
The Bearcat defense has allowed 33 points per game, ranking them 102nd overall. In their four losses, they have given up at least 35 points to their opponents. Without playing a fourth quarter, they allowed a total of 515 yards, 374 of them through the air, to UCF.
Senior linebacker, Jaylyin Minor, leads the team with 59 total tackles and ranks 9th in the nation, individually. With just seven turnovers this year, they currently rank 88th in turnover margin. The Bearcats rank 111th in rushing defense and 35th in passing defense.
Cincinnati Offense
Some teams can get away with not having strong defenses by making up for it with extra offense. Last season, USF was one of those teams. This season, Cincinnati is not. They are averaging just a tick under 23 points per game. The Bearcats are especially rough in the ground game, averaging just over 102 yards per game. Despite have a mobile quarterback in Hayden Moore, they pass for more than twice as many yards as they run per game, 229. Moore has thrown ten touchdown passes and 5 interceptions this season. His 22 rushing yards per game puts him in third place on the team. Gerrid Doaks and Mike Boone lead the team with 46 and 27 rushing yards per game. All of three of them have two touchdowns on the season. Cincinnati ranks 118th in the nation for rushing offense.
Junior receiver, Kahill Lewis, gets twice as many targets as anyone else, leading the receiving corps with 54 yards per game and 4 touchdowns this year. Their 229 yards passing per game ranks Cincinnati 69th, overall. The Bearcats offensive output is one of the lowest in the country, ranking them 102nd.
USF Defense
The Bulls defense is certainly much improved from last season, but they had an off game in their last outing against ECU. They allow just 20 points and under 294 yards per game, but allowed 1-5 ECU to score 31 and pile up more than 400 yards of offense in their last outing. In total defense, USF is ranked 15th, nationally. Where the Bulls shine on defense is against the run, where their #2 rushing defense has allowed just 74 yards per game, second only to #1 Alabama. ECU’s more than 300 yards passing shows why USF ranks just 57th against the pass. Although, playing with comfortable leads throughout most of their games has forced opponents to pass as they attempted to catch up with one of the top producing offenses in the country.
Senior linebacker, Auggie Sanchez, has regained the top spot in total tackles, a statistical category he dominated, last season, when he was ranked 20th, nationally. Sanchez is getting more help, this year, however, with his 32 tackles followed closely by fellow linebacker, Nico Sawtelle’s 26. Defensive backs, Deatrick Nichols and Ronnie Hoggins round out the top four with 22 and 20 tackles, respectively.
One major factor to the improved output from the USF defense has been the creation of turnovers. They are #1 in turnover margin, taking 16 while just giving up just five. They also lead the nation in interceptions, with 14 and passes defended with 49. Defensive backs, Devin Abraham and Mazzi Wilkins, lead the team with three picks apiece, tied for the ninth best total in the nation. Nichols and Sawtelle each have a pair of interceptions of their own. Sanchez has just one interception, but it was returned for a touchdown.
Linemen, Bruce Hector and Mike Love, lead the team with 3 sacks each.
Expectations
USF will run the ball. They will run the ball a lot, because they can. The Cincinnati defense is better against the run than the pass, so they should be able to contain some of the Bulls’ run game and keep the scoring relatively close in the first quarter and a half. All of that focus on trying to contain Flowers’ feet and the Tice-Johnson tandem will open up the secondary to some homerun shots, giving USF a healthy lead into halftime. The Bearcats will score points, though, as long as they throw the ball often. Doing that, though, will wake up that Bulls turnover machine, stealing scoring chances from the Bearcats. This game should be well in hand for USF by the end of three quarters.
Summary
A win for the Bulls will extend the nation’s second best winning streak to 11 games and tie USF for the all-time NCAA record for the longest streak of games scoring 30 points or more. That record was set by Oregon in 2012. USF is a 24 point favorite for Saturday’s game, which kicks off at Raymond James Stadium at 7:30 PM EDT. ESPN, who will broadcast the game on their ESPNU network nationally, gives USF a 90.6% chance of winning.