Hurricane Irma is now history and the football season is moving forward. Poll Watch was postponed and USF’s game against UConn was rescheduled as a result. The rankings have been surprisingly negative towards the Bulls, even though they keep on winning.
First up, the Associated Press media poll, which has been explained on USF Blog in the past.
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AP Team, 1 Alabama 2 Clemson 3 Oklahoma 4 Penn St 5 USC 6 Oklahoma St 7 Washington 8 Michigan 9 Wisconsin 10 Ohio St 11 Georgia 12 Florida St |
13 Virginia Tech 14 Miami FL 15 Auburn 16 TCU 17 Mississippi St 18 Washington St 19 Louisville 20 Florida 21 South Florida 22 San Diego St 23 Utah 24 Oregon 25 LSU |
USF started the season ranked 19th in the AP Poll, but has dropped to a low of 22 before rebounding to 21st, this week. A slow start against San Jose State when they trailed the entire first quarter contributed to their Week 2 drop and their low rank of 22nd was clearly related to the fact that they were tied with Stony Brook in the fourth quarter before pulling away. The blowout victory over Illinois has apparently not redeemed them in the eyes of voters.
The other important major poll is the USA Today Amway Coaches’ Poll, whose methodology was defined on USF Blog, previously.
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USA Team, 1 Alabama 2 Clemson 3 Oklahoma 4 Penn St 5 USC 6 Washington 7 Oklahoma St 8 Michigan 9 Ohio St 10 Wisconsin 11 Florida St 12 Georgia |
13 Virginia Tech 14 Miami FL 15 TCU 16 Auburn 17 South Florida 18 Washington St 19 Mississippi St 20 Louisville 21 Utah 22 Florida 23 LSU 24 Oregon 25 San Diego St |
As was the case in 2016, the coaches appreciate USF more than the media. After the Stony Brook win, the Bulls went up in rank instead of down. They did drop one spot in Week 3, the week they did not play, but jumped four spots after the convincing win over Illinois.
The CBS 130 was a big fan of what USF did throughout the 2016 season, keeping them ranked in the top 31 spots every week, and in the top 25 as early as Week 2. This year, they’re not convinced. Their methodology was discussed on a prior edition of USF Blog.
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1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2 Oklahoma Sooners 3 Clemson Tigers 4 Southern California Trojans 5 Penn State Nittany Lions 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys 7 Michigan Wolverines 8 Wisconsin Badgers 9 Washington Huskies 10 Georgia Bulldogs 11 LSU Tigers 12 Ohio State Buckeyes 13 Louisville Cardinals 14 Auburn Tigers 15 Florida State Seminoles 16 Virginia Tech Hokies 17 Stanford Cardinal
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18 Kansas State Wildcats 19 TCU Horned Frogs 20 Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes 21 South Carolina Gamecocks 22 Oregon Ducks 23 UCLA Bruins 24 Maryland Terrapins 25 Colorado Buffaloes 26 Tennessee Volunteers (2-1) 27 Washington State Cougars (3-0) 28 Utah Utes (3-0) 29 Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0) 30 Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-0) 31 Florida Gators (1-1) 32 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-1) 33 West Virginia Mountaineers (2-1) 34 South Florida Bulls (3-0) |
USF had been given top 25 status in CBS’ system up until running away from Illinois. Inexplicably, their most dominating win of the season earns them the 34th spot in this ranking system, down 15 spots from their preseason 19th position.
The Congrove ranking is one that, along with the two major polls, is a factor in the Massey Composite ranking, which is featured below. USF Blog has explained Congrove on previous segments.
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CGV Team, 1 Penn St 2 Oklahoma 3 Wisconsin 4 Clemson 5 Alabama 6 Oklahoma St 7 Washington 8 USC 9 Ohio St 10 Virginia Tech 11 Washington St 12 Florida St |
13 TCU 14 Miami FL 15 Georgia 16 Houston 17 South Florida 18 Vanderbilt 19 Iowa 20 Wake Forest 21 Mississippi St 22 Georgia Tech 23 Colorado 24 Michigan 25 Toledo |
The Congrove system likes what USF is doing. The Bulls dropped from 22 to 24 the week they played Stony Brook. Then, the week they would have played UConn, they climbed to 20th as other teams began to take losses. After solidly beating Illinois, they’re up to 17th.
The ESPN Football Power Index uses, among other factors, strength of schedule to determine the caliber of a team. For the Bulls, whom they deem to have the 83rd weakest schedule in the country, they have little respect.
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1 Oklahoma, Big 12 2 OSU, Big Ten 3 Clemson, ACC 4 Alabama, SEC 5 Penn State, Big Ten 6 Wisconsin, Big Ten 7 Washington, Pac-12 8 Oklahoma State, Big 12 9 FSU, ACC 10 Miss St, SEC 11 TCU, Big 12 12 USC, Pac-12 13 Stanford, Pac-12 14 Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 15 Oregon, Pac-12 16 Auburn, SEC 17 Georgia, SEC 18 Michigan, Big Ten 19 LSU, SEC 20 VT, ACC 21 Texas, Big 12 22 Louisville, ACC 23 Kansas State, Big 12 24 Florida, SEC |
25 UCLA, Pac-12 26 Tennessee, SEC 27 Miami, ACC 28 Washington St, Pac-12 29 NC State, ACC 30 Duke, ACC 31 Georgia Tech, ACC 32 South Carolina, SEC 33 Texas Tech, Big 12 34 UNC, ACC 35 Wake Forest, ACC 36 Maryland, Big Ten 37 Arizona, Pac-12 38 Iowa, Big Ten 39 Houston, American 40 Texas A&M, SEC 41 Vanderbilt, SEC 42 Kentucky, SEC 43 Northwestern, Big Ten 44 Minnesota, Big Ten 45 West Virginia, Big 12 46 UCF, American 47 Colorado, Pac-12 48 USF, American |
The nice thing about the ESPN FPI is that gives credit to teams who beat good teams. The major flaw in a system like this is that a great team can have a weak schedule, win all of their games handily, and still be ranked low. In essence, it’s a rank of schedules. Not only do the Bulls rate only 48th place, they’re behind UCF and Houston, which makes this ranking system unique to not have USF as the best team in the conference.
The Massey Composite is one of the most important ranking systems as it combines the results of dozens of other computer and human based rankings to create one final ranking. A more detailed explanation is available on other USF Blog postings.
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Rank, Team, 1 Alabama 2 Clemson 3 Oklahoma 4 Oklahoma St 5 USC 6 Ohio St 7 Penn St 8 Washington 9 Wisconsin 10 Michigan 11 Mississippi St 12 Virginia Tech 13 Georgia 14 Florida St |
15 TCU 16 Miami FL 17 Auburn 18 Louisville 19 LSU 20 Washington St 21 Florida 22 Oregon 23 Minnesota 24 Notre Dame 25 Colorado 26 San Diego St 27 Iowa 28 Stanford 29 South Florida |
USF has a history of being ignored in human polling while getting a lot of credit in the computers. So far, the tables have turned, this season. The composite ranking of 29 indicates that most systems do not see the Bulls as a top 25 team.
One of those negative pulls on USF’s composite rank is the Sagarin ranking system. This system utilizes computer models, explained on an old USF Blog article.
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1 Alabama 2 Oklahoma 3 Clemson 4 Ohio St 5 Oklahoma St 6 Wisconsin 7 Penn St 8 Washington 9 Florida St 10 USC 11 Mississippi St 12 Michigan 13 Auburn 14 LSU 15 Georgia 16 Notre Dame 17 TCU 18 Virginia Tech 19 Oregon 20 Miami FL 21 Louisville 22 Stanford |
23 Utah 24 Washington St 25 Kansas St 26 Florida 27 Michigan St 28 Texas A&M 29 Georgia Tech 30 UCLA 31 Tennessee 32 Duke 33 Memphis 34 Texas 36 Houston 37 Iowa 38 Colorado 39 Minnesota 40 Boise St 41 Wake Forest 42 San Diego St 43 Northwestern 44 West Virginia 45 South Florida |
The Bulls come in at 45th in this model, which is higher than they started at the beginning of the season, 50th, and higher than their low the week they did not play, 52.
