USF Poll Watch Week 4 2017 All

Hurricane Irma is now history and the football season is moving forward.  Poll Watch was postponed and USF’s game against UConn was rescheduled as a result.  The rankings have been surprisingly negative towards the Bulls, even though they keep on winning.

First up, the Associated Press media poll, which has been explained on USF Blog in the past. 

AP          Team,

1              Alabama

2              Clemson

3              Oklahoma

4              Penn St

5              USC

6              Oklahoma St

7              Washington

8              Michigan

9              Wisconsin

10           Ohio St

11           Georgia

12           Florida St

13           Virginia Tech

14           Miami FL

15           Auburn

16           TCU

17           Mississippi St

18           Washington St

19           Louisville

20           Florida

21           South Florida

22           San Diego St

23           Utah

24           Oregon

25           LSU

 

USF started the season ranked 19th in the AP Poll, but has dropped to a low of 22 before rebounding to 21st, this week.  A slow start against San Jose State when they trailed the entire first quarter contributed to their Week 2 drop and their low rank of 22nd was clearly related to the fact that they were tied with Stony Brook in the fourth quarter before pulling away.  The blowout victory over Illinois has apparently not redeemed them in the eyes of voters.

USF Poll Watch Week 4 2017 AP

 

The other important major poll is the USA Today Amway Coaches’ Poll, whose methodology was defined on USF Blog, previously. 

USA       Team,

1              Alabama

2              Clemson

3              Oklahoma

4              Penn St

5              USC

6              Washington

7              Oklahoma St

8              Michigan

9              Ohio St

10           Wisconsin

11           Florida St

12           Georgia

13           Virginia Tech

14           Miami FL

15           TCU

16           Auburn

17           South Florida

18           Washington St

19           Mississippi St

20           Louisville

21           Utah

22           Florida

23           LSU

24           Oregon

25           San Diego St

 

As was the case in 2016, the coaches appreciate USF more than the media.  After the Stony Brook win, the Bulls went up in rank instead of down.  They did drop one spot in Week 3, the week they did not play, but jumped four spots after the convincing win over Illinois. 

USF Poll Watch Week 4 2017 Coaches

The CBS 130 was a big fan of what USF did throughout the 2016 season, keeping them ranked in the top 31 spots every week, and in the top 25 as early as Week 2.  This year, they’re not convinced.  Their methodology was discussed on a prior edition of USF Blog.

1              Alabama Crimson Tide

2              Oklahoma Sooners

3              Clemson Tigers

4              Southern California Trojans

5              Penn State Nittany Lions

6              Oklahoma State Cowboys

7              Michigan Wolverines

8              Wisconsin Badgers

9              Washington Huskies

10           Georgia Bulldogs

11           LSU Tigers

12           Ohio State Buckeyes

13           Louisville Cardinals

14           Auburn Tigers

15           Florida State Seminoles

16           Virginia Tech Hokies

17           Stanford Cardinal

18           Kansas State Wildcats

19           TCU Horned Frogs

20           Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes

21           South Carolina Gamecocks

22           Oregon Ducks

23           UCLA Bruins

24           Maryland Terrapins

25           Colorado Buffaloes

26           Tennessee Volunteers (2-1)

27           Washington State Cougars (3-0)

28           Utah Utes (3-0)

29           Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0)

30           Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-0)

31           Florida Gators (1-1)

32           Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-1)

33           West Virginia Mountaineers (2-1)

34           South Florida Bulls (3-0)

 

USF had been given top 25 status in CBS’ system up until running away from Illinois.  Inexplicably, their most dominating win of the season earns them the 34th spot in this ranking system, down 15 spots from their preseason 19th position.

USF Poll Watch Week 4 2017 CBS 130

The Congrove ranking is one that, along with the two major polls, is a factor in the Massey Composite ranking, which is featured below.  USF Blog has explained Congrove on previous segments.

CGV       Team,

1              Penn St

2              Oklahoma

3              Wisconsin

4              Clemson

5              Alabama

6              Oklahoma St

7              Washington

8              USC

9              Ohio St

10           Virginia Tech

11           Washington St

12           Florida St

13           TCU

14           Miami FL

15           Georgia

16           Houston

17           South Florida

18           Vanderbilt

19           Iowa

20           Wake Forest

21           Mississippi St

22           Georgia Tech

23           Colorado

24           Michigan

25           Toledo

 

The Congrove system likes what USF is doing.  The Bulls dropped from 22 to 24 the week they played Stony Brook.  Then, the week they would have played UConn, they climbed to 20th as other teams began to take losses.  After solidly beating Illinois, they’re up to 17th.

USF Poll Watch Week 4 2017 Congrove

The ESPN Football Power Index uses, among other factors, strength of schedule to determine the caliber of a team.  For the Bulls, whom they deem to have the 83rd weakest schedule in the country, they have little respect. 

1              Oklahoma, Big 12

2              OSU, Big Ten

3              Clemson, ACC

4              Alabama, SEC

5              Penn State, Big Ten

6              Wisconsin, Big Ten

7              Washington, Pac-12

8              Oklahoma State, Big 12

9              FSU, ACC

10           Miss St, SEC

11           TCU, Big 12

12           USC, Pac-12

13           Stanford, Pac-12

14           Notre Dame, FBS Indep.

15           Oregon, Pac-12

16           Auburn, SEC

17           Georgia, SEC

18           Michigan, Big Ten

19           LSU, SEC

20           VT, ACC

21           Texas, Big 12

22           Louisville, ACC

23           Kansas State, Big 12

24           Florida, SEC

25           UCLA, Pac-12

26           Tennessee, SEC

27           Miami, ACC

28           Washington St, Pac-12

29           NC State, ACC

30           Duke, ACC

31           Georgia Tech, ACC

32           South Carolina, SEC

33           Texas Tech, Big 12

34           UNC, ACC

35           Wake Forest, ACC

36           Maryland, Big Ten

37           Arizona, Pac-12

38           Iowa, Big Ten

39           Houston, American

40           Texas A&M, SEC

41           Vanderbilt, SEC

42           Kentucky, SEC

43           Northwestern, Big Ten

44           Minnesota, Big Ten

45           West Virginia, Big 12

46           UCF, American

47           Colorado, Pac-12

48           USF, American

 

The nice thing about the ESPN FPI is that gives credit to teams who beat good teams.  The major flaw in a system like this is that a great team can have a weak schedule, win all of their games handily, and still be ranked low.  In essence, it’s a rank of schedules.  Not only do the Bulls rate only 48th place, they’re behind UCF and Houston, which makes this ranking system unique to not have USF as the best team in the conference.

USF Poll Watch Week 4 2017 ESPN

The Massey Composite is one of the most important ranking systems as it combines the results of dozens of other computer and human based rankings to create one final ranking.  A more detailed explanation is available on other USF Blog postings.

Rank,     Team,

1              Alabama

2              Clemson

3              Oklahoma

4              Oklahoma St

5              USC

6              Ohio St

7              Penn St

8              Washington

9              Wisconsin

10           Michigan

11           Mississippi St

12           Virginia Tech

13           Georgia

14           Florida St

15           TCU

16           Miami FL

17           Auburn

18           Louisville

19           LSU

20           Washington St

21           Florida

22           Oregon

23           Minnesota

24           Notre Dame

25           Colorado

26           San Diego St

27           Iowa

28           Stanford

29           South Florida

 

USF has a history of being ignored in human polling while getting a lot of credit in the computers.  So far, the tables have turned, this season.  The composite ranking of 29 indicates that most systems do not see the Bulls as a top 25 team.

USF Poll Watch Week 4 2017 Massey

 

One of those negative pulls on USF’s composite rank is the Sagarin ranking system.  This system utilizes computer models, explained on an old USF Blog article.

1              Alabama

2              Oklahoma

3              Clemson

4              Ohio St

5              Oklahoma St

6              Wisconsin

7              Penn St

8              Washington

9              Florida St

10           USC

11           Mississippi St

12           Michigan

13           Auburn

14           LSU

15           Georgia

16           Notre Dame

17           TCU

18           Virginia Tech

19           Oregon

20           Miami FL

21           Louisville

22           Stanford

23           Utah

24           Washington St

25           Kansas St

26           Florida

27           Michigan St

28           Texas A&M

29           Georgia Tech

30           UCLA

31           Tennessee

32           Duke

33           Memphis

34           Texas

36           Houston

37           Iowa

38           Colorado

39           Minnesota

40           Boise St

41           Wake Forest

42           San Diego St

43           Northwestern

44           West Virginia

45           South Florida

 

The Bulls come in at 45th in this model, which is higher than they started at the beginning of the season, 50th, and higher than their low the week they did not play, 52. 

USF Poll Watch Week 4 2017 Sagarin

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