The USF Bulls will host the FSU Seminoles for a midday kickoff on Saturday, just the fourth meeting between the two programs. USF won the first game in the all-time series in 2009, but the Seminoles have posted two double digit win
margins in the two games since. The Bulls are 3-0 after a convincing win over Syracuse last week, 45-20.
Florida State is coming off a very bad week, with an embarrassing 63-20 loss to Louisville, last week. They began the season with a convincing 45-34 win over then ranked #11 Ole Miss in week one and followed that up with a 52-8 beating of Charleston Southern in the second week.
Despite the two big scoring weeks, their third week total brings their scoring average to 39 points per game, ranked 37th nationally. Their offensive style seems to emphasize the pass over the run, at present, with nearly 100 more passing yards per game than rushing.
Junior running back, Dalvin Cook, had been one of the most electrifying aspects of the FSU offense in the past two seasons, rushing for over 1,000 yards in each, with 19 touchdowns last year. He has yet to break out this season, totaling just 228 yards per game and just two touchdowns in three games. At the end of last season, Cook was fifth in the nation in yards per game and ranked eighth for rushing touchdowns. He’s currently 76th in rushing yards per game with 76 and outside the top hundred in scores.
Under center for FSU is freshman quarterback, Deondre Francois. Francois has six touchdowns and a respectable 782 yards on the season. He ranks 31st nationally with 261 yards per game passing. He has thrown just two interceptions on the season.
It’s Travis Rudolph, junior receiver, who has been the favorite target for Francois, who has caught 3 of the Seminoles’ seven passing touchdowns. He leads the team in receiving yards per game with 73. Despite having just four catches on the season, sophomore receiver, Auden Tate has managed to catch 3 touchdowns of his own, on eleven less opportunities than Rudolph.
The Louisville game is likely an outlier, statistically, for FSU, but their scoring defense is currently ranked 107th, having allowed an average of 35 points per game. They’ve been successfully reaching opponent’s quarterbacks, notching 10 sacks per game. Senior lineman, DeMarcus Walker, has nearly half of the total, with 4.5. Junior linebacker, Matthew Thomas, leads the team with 14 tackles while sophomore defensive back, Tarvarus McFadden, has hauled in two interceptions.
While the Seminoles come into the game with lots of emotions from their recent loss, the Bulls will be entering the stadium feeling better than they have in several years. The team has a 3-0 record for the first time since 2011 and they are not winning close games. They have won their last seven regular season matchups, with the last six coming by an average score of 50-18. This season, they’re averaging just a tick under 50 points per game in scoring, with their season low of 45 points against FSU conference rival, Syracuse, last weekend.
The Bulls offense, ranked the seventh highest scoring offense in the country at present, is led by dynamic dual threat junior quarterback, Quinton Flowers. Flowers’ statistics do not jump off the page, but he is quickly earning a reputation for his ability to keep plays alive with his elusiveness and footwork. He ranks just 45th in yards per game and only has seven passing touchdowns on the season. Flowers’ other weapon is his long ball. He’s currently tied at 10th in the nation in yards per passing attempt, with an average of 9.5 yards per attempt. His ability to make big passes is complimented with about 50 yards per game rushing, for which he has scored a pair of touchdowns.
Cook has the national accolades, but USF has their own star running back in junior, Marlon Mack. Mack leads the #19 rushing attack in the nation, with 173 rushing yards in just two games. He missed the week two matchup against NIU due to possible concussion symptoms, but returned to form against Syracuse in week 3, where he broke 115 yards rushing with two touchdowns. Mack is a two-time 1,000 yard rusher in his own right and led the American Athletic Conference in rushing two years in a row, named to the all-conference first team in 2014 and 2015. With such an accomplished back, it might seem that the Bulls would have dropped off in his one game absence, but that was not the case. Senior running back, Darius Tice, filled the gap nicely, racking up 120 of his 165 yards while Mack was out.
Two other key players for the Bulls in their high powered offense are junior running back, D’Ernest Johnson and senior receiver, Rodney Adams. They are listed at different positions, but each plays a hybrid role, where Adams will carry the ball on several plays and Johnson will be frequently targeted for the pass. Adams has 99 rushing yards and 153 receiving yards on the season with four touchdowns on the ground and two through the air. Johnson has racked up 139 yards on the run and 93 receiving yards, with a pair of receiving touchdowns.
Leading those two in receptions is junior receiver, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who is averaging 62 yards per game with one touchdown this season. He and the number three receiver on the team, junior, Ryshene Bronson, are the other end of the Flower big play equation. Valdes-Scantling is averaging 18.6 yards per reception and Bronson has five catches for an average of over 26 yards each. In all, 14 Bulls have caught passes and seven have caught passes for touchdowns.
The USF defense is ranked 36th in scoring defense, currently, giving up an average of 19 points per game. In their last outing, the defense looked poor at the start against Syracuse, but allowed just 3 points for the final three quarters of play. Junior linebacker, Auggie Sanchez, leads the team with 33 tackles, 11th nationally, is followed by senior linebacker, Nigel Harris, who has 21. Sanchez also has a pair of sacks, a third of the team’s total of six. Harris and two other Bulls, junior defensive backs, Tajee Fullwood and Deatrick Nichols, each have an interception this season.
The matchup looks to favor USF on offense, with their top ten scoring offense against one of the lowest ranked scoring defenses in FSU. Of course the ratings are a bit skewed by the 60+ points given up last week to the Cardinals, but the Seminole defense did allow that score, making it a relevant statistic.
On the other side of things, the offense to defense matchup still seems to favor the Bulls with the Seminoles have the ball. USF, who are allowing less than twenty points per game, while FSU is averaging 39 points per game.
The Seminoles are currently favored by about a touchdown in this game by the line-makers, but there are many predicting this goes the other way. It is technically a home game for USF, there may be more FSU fans in the stadium on Saturday, effectively giving themselves home field advantage.
