Who: UCF Knights vs. USF Bulls
What: American Athletic Conference football game
When: Saturday, November 26th, 2016
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Why: Conference championship implications, potential regional rivalry
The University of South Florida Bulls welcome to Raymond James Stadium, the University of Central Florida Knights for the eighth historical matchup between these two teams, just 90 miles apart. The series has been dominated by USF for the four meetings prior to 2013, after which UCF won two in a row. The Bulls resumed their normal dominate position in the series with a 44-3 win in the last game, played at UCF. There has been a concerted attempt by both the administration and boosters of both schools to create a regional rivalry, with mixed results. The two teams have rarely met on common ground, when one or the other was not in some serious stage of rebuilding.
This year looked like it would be another one of those games, where USF is strong but the Knights were reeling from the loss of their old coach. However, that appears to not be the case, as UCF turned their season around by the time that conference play had begun, becoming bowl eligible in Week 11. They currently sit at 6-5 (4-3) and third in the AAC East division, hoping to rebound from a loss to Tulsa, last week.
At 9-2 (6-1), the Bulls are a bit of a letdown this season. They were heavily favored to win the East division, before a blowout loss at the hands of Temple, with whom they share the division lead. Because Temple has the tiebreaker, the Bulls need ECU to beat the Owls to give them a berth to the championship game.
Despite the disparity in records, these teams do have some commonality on their results, this season. Both teams were beaten badly early in the season by ranked opponents, #5 Michigan over UCF and #13 FSU over USF. Both teams have wins over UConn, Cincinnati, and ECU, while losing to Temple.
USF Offense
The Bulls scoring offense is prolific, ranking 7th in the nation, scoring an average of 43 points per game. Their streak of 15 games scoring 30 or more points, is the best in the nation. That high octane offense is due in large part to the running game, led by quarterback, Quinton Flowers, and running back, Marlon Mack. Flowers has been one of the most dynamic players in the nation, rushing for 115 yards per game and 1,273 yards on the season. He and Mack are tied with 13 rushing touchdowns apiece. Mack is averaging just over 98 yards per game, 31st in the country, while Flowers ranks 12th. The duo combine to form the 6th best rushing offense in the nation.
Flowers can also throw the ball around, racking up one yard shy of 2,400 passing yards this season. He has thrown 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions, averaging 218 yards per game. Receiver, Rodney Adams, has been his favorite target, logging 677 yards and five touchdowns. Fellow receiver, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, ties the number of touchdowns caught by Adams, but has about 2/3 the yardage.
UCF Defense
The key to the season turnaround by the Knights has been defense. They’re currently ranked 27th, allowing just under 22 points per game. Stronger against the pass than the run, 37th versus 65th, they are holding opponents to just 207 passing yards per game. In six games this year, UCF’s opponents were held to 20 or fewer points, three of them held to single digits. The defense is led by linebackers, Mark Rucker and Shaquem Griffin, who have 81 and 80 tackles respectively. Griffin also leads the team in sacks, with his 11 takedowns totaling nearly a third of the team’s output. He also has more interceptions than any other Knight, totaling four, with one going for a touchdown. Defensive back, D.J. Killings has three picks this season, with one pick six. UCF is the 26th in turnover margin.
UCF Offense
On the offensive side of the ball, UCF has room for improvement. Averaging 30 points per game, they are ranked 61st in the country. Scoring for the Knights is about 2:1 rushing versus passing, with 23 touchdowns on the ground and 11 via passing. Rushing duties are split between senior running back, Dontravious Wilson, and freshman running back, Jawon Hamilton, with each logging more than 420 yards rushing. Wilson has the edge with 459 yards and 8 touchdowns to Hamilton’s 427 yards and 3 scores. Quarterback, McKenzie Milton, doesn’t run often, but has averaged 20 yards per game on the ground. As a team, the Knights rank 86th in rushing offense.
Through the air, Milton has 1,583 passing yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s averaging 197 yards per game, which ranks the team 98th in passing offense. Most of those passes are headed for receiver, Tre’Quan Smith, who has 625 yards and three touchdowns this season.
USF Defense
The Bulls and Knights have opposite strengths and weaknesses. As strong as USF is on offense, they are equally weak on defense. For example, they lead the conference in points for, amassing an impressive 475 points scored, but only last place ECU has allowed more points in the East division than USF’s 341. They currently rank 85th, nationally, allowing 31 points per game. The defense has been led by linebacker, Auggie Sanchez, who has 99 tackles this season. That ranks him 29th in the nation. He also leads his team in sacks, with six. Defensive back, Deatrick Nichols, has four interceptions this season, about a third of the team’s total. USF is especially weak against the run, ranking 103rd and allowing 218 rushing yards per game. Opponents have scored 25 touchdowns via the run against them, the 96th worst total in the nation.
Expectations
USF is going to score a lot of points, because it’s what they do. However, this could be the game that breaks the nation’s longest scoring streak of 30 point games. The Knights have a turnover edge with a propensity for snagging interceptions, so any passing by Flowers may be up for grabs. The Bulls make their numbers on the ground, and that happens to be an area of weakness for UCF, who averages less points per game on offense than the Bulls allow. USF will likely be held to lower than their 43 point per game average and their weak defense will allow the Knights to exceed theirs. This probably results in a close game, with the outcome determined by a touchdown.
Kickoff is at noon EST at Raymond James Stadium. The game can be viewed nationally on CBS Sports Network.