Who: USF Bulls vs. Memphis Tigers
What: American Athletic Conference Football Game
When: Saturday, November 12, 2016
Where: Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
Why: Conference Championship Ramifications
The University of South Florida Bulls take to the road to face off with the Memphis Tigers for the ninth game in their all-time series. The Tigers lead that series, 5-3, winning the last three matchups. Last year, these teams met in Tampa, where Memphis won, 24-17.
The Tigers sit at fourth place in the AAC West Division, with a 6-3 (3-2) record this season. Last week, Memphis demolished SMU, 51-7 in Dallas. Quarterback, Riley Ferguson, went 20-27 for 287 yards and four touchdowns in that game. Their best win of the season came in a 34-27 victory over AAC East Division Leader, Temple.
USF is currently in second place in the AAC East. They’re coming off a bye week with a 7-2 (4-1) record. Their last outing was hosting then #22 Navy, beating them, 55-45 in what became an ugly game. The Bulls led that game, 42-14 at halftime, only to let Navy win the second half, 31-10.
USF Offense
The Bulls boast the eighth ranked rushing attack in the country, averaging 273 yards per game, and ranking third in rushing touchdowns scored, nationally. Quarterback, Quinton Flowers, leads the team in rushing yards with 921 and yards per game with 102. He has scored ten rushing touchdowns, this year. Running back, Marlon Mack, is just a couple of yards below 100 per game, with 11 touchdowns. Flowers is the 22nd ranked rusher in the nation and Mack is 35th.
Through the air, Flowers is averaging 215 yards per game, amassing 1941 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season. Receiver, Rodney Adams, is Flowers’ favorite target, with 41 catches and four touchdowns. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is second on the team with 304 yards and four touchdowns.
Memphis Defense
The Memphis defense is ranked 46th in the nation, allowing nearly 25 points per game. The bad news is that they give up 194 rushing yards per game, which plays to USF’s strength. The Tigers have four linebackers and a defensive back who all have more than 50 tackles on the season. They’re led by linebackers Genard Avery and Johnathan Cook, with 57 and 56 tackles, respectively. Avery has also racked up 3 sacks, which accounts for nearly a third of the team’s output.
The Tigers are ranked 59th passing defense, allowing 224 yards per game. As a team, they have 12 interceptions, with Avery and defensive backs, Jahmahl Parnder and Arthur Maulet, leading the team with two apiece. Avery’s two interceptions were pick-sixes, something for the Bulls to keep in mind.
Memphis Offense
Like the Bulls, Memphis is a lot better on offense than on defense. Their scoring offense is ranked 19th in the country, averaging nearly 39 points per game. They do it primarily through the air, where 65% of their yards gained were on passing plays. Quarterback, Riley Ferguson, takes the snaps for the Tigers, where he has averaged 271 yards per game, with 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. He ranks 21st, nationally, in yards per game and 16th for passing touchdowns.
Receiver, Anthony Miller, has been the favorite target, with 57 catches for 924 yards and seven touchdowns. That’s roughly twice as much production as the second leading receiver, Phil Mayhue, has. Currently, Miller is ranked 15th in receiving yards per game, nationally, and 31st for receiving touchdowns.
The ground game is a classic run-by-committee, with two freshman and a junior splitting the carries. Doroland Dorceus, leads the team and freshman running backs, Patrick Taylor Jr. and Darrell Henderson, with 559 yards and six touchdowns. Dorceus averages 62 yards per game, while the two freshman average about half of that. As a unit, they’re ranked 88th in the nation.
USF Defense
The Bulls have simply struggled on defense all season. In their last matchup with Navy, their lack of defense in the second half made a blowout look like a nail biter. And, in their two losses this season, they gave up 55 and 46 points to FSU and Temple, respectively. Not surprisingly, they’re ranked 84th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 30 points per game. That number would likely be higher, if their level of completion was of better quality.
Those defensive failures have not been due to the lack of effort of linebacker, Auggie Sanchez, who leads the team with 79 total tackles. That tackle total puts him in a 6-way tie for 47th in the nation in the category. Sanchez also leads the team with 6 sacks, more than a quarter of the team’s sack production. Fellow linebacker, Nigel Harris, is second on the team in total tackles, with 53. Harris is also third on the team in total sacks, with two, and tied for the team lead with defensive back, Ronnie Hoggins, with two interceptions.
USF is allowing 248 passing yards and 218 rushing yards per game, ranking them 88th and 105th, respectively. They have given up 23 rushing touchdowns this season, contrasted with just ten passing touchdowns.
Expectations
The Tigers should be expected to pass the ball a lot, leaning on their strength. Passing defense is a particular area of weakness for the Bulls, so Memphis should be expected to get their way more often than not. Given the lack of a strong running game for the Tigers, the Bulls weak run defense probably holds up fairly well. However, if Memphis passes the ball, Ferguson should be able to get his average yards and scoring due to USF’s weakness on passing defense. His 271 yards per game lines up pretty well with the 248 the Bulls allow.
On the other side of the ball, Quinton Flowers and Marlon Mack will score points. The Memphis defense is allowing nearly 200 yards of both passing and running per game. With each of them averaging about 100 yards per game rushing and Flowers averaging 215 yards passing per game, it should be expected that the Bulls will hit their average scoring number of 43 points per game.
This looks to be a very close, high scoring game, with the Bulls piling up the running stats while Memphis does the same through air. The betting money calls the Bulls three point favorites in this one, which lines up pretty well with each team’s average scoring, emphasizing how poor each defense has performed.
Kickoff is 7 PM EST. The game can be viewed nationally on ESPNU.