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Who:                    Houston Cougars vs. #17 / 14 USF Bulls
What:                   FBS football game
When:                  Saturday, October, 28
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Where:                Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Why:                    Conference championship implications

The University of South Florida Bulls will welcome into Raymond James Stadium, the University of Houston Cougars for the third time in the history of both programs.  The all-time series is tied, with USF winning the first two games in 2001 and 2002, and Houston winning the two games that occurred in the American Athletic Conference era in 2014 and 2013. 

Houston comes into the game with a 4-3 (2-2) record, fourth place in the AAC West division.  They opened the season with a win over now 5-2 Arizona.  In their last game, they were defeated, 42-38, by then #25 Memphis.  The Cougars led in that game with two minutes left.  With a minute and a half before the end of regulation, Memphis took the lead.  Their other two losses are to 4-3 Texas Tech and 2-6 Tulsa.  With the exception of Tulsa, the other two losses suggest that Houston is better than their record would otherwise indicate.

USF enters the game riding their nation-leading 12 game win streak at a program record 7-0 (4-0) and an all-time NCAA record 24 straight games scoring 30 points or more.  While the quality of the Bulls’ schedule isn’t as pretty as Houston’s, they’ve done what they were expected to with the teams they have had to play, dominating their overmatched opponents.  One such opponent that they faced in their last matchup, was Tulane, whom they led 34-7 midway through the third quarter, before letting the Green Wave score two touchdowns in the final ten minutes of the game to give the appearance of a close game. 

USF Offense
The Bulls rank in the top ten nationally in scoring, averaging 41 points per game, the ninth best average in the country.   While their 188 yards passing per game is ranks only 97
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, their seventh ranked rushing attack makes up the difference, averaging over 300 yards per game, on the ground.  Running backs, Darius Tice and D’Ernest Johnson, get close to equal carries, with Tice averaging 90 yards per game and Johson averaging over 81.  Tice has found the end zone nine times, while Johnson has five touchdowns.  Senior quarterback, Quinton Flowers, has the second highest run tally on the team, rushing for 87 yards per game with seven touchdowns on the season.  Tice and Flowers are nationally ranked #34 and #38 in rushing.

Part of the reason that Flowers’ average passing yards per game, 177, is so low is the fact that USF is always playing with a lead, and, more often than not it is a big one.  Passing is rarely necessary and running the ball has carried less risk.  Flowers has 12 passing touchdowns and just three interceptions.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been Flower’s number one target all season, with 28 catches for 382 yards and four touchdowns.  For contrast, the number two producer in the receiving corps, Tyre McCants, has just 11 catches for 203 yards and three touchdowns.

Houston Defense
On defense, the Cougars are middle of the pack, nationally, ranked 52
nd in scoring defense.  They fare better against the pass than the run, 58th versus 107th
.   Although they allow more than 100 yards more passing yards than rushing, 261 versus 155 11, of the 17 touchdowns they have allowed have been rushing touchdowns. 

Linebackers, D’Juan Hines and Matthew Adams, lead the team in tackles, with 66 and 57, respectively.  Those two account for 25% of the team’s total tackles on the season.  As a team, Houston ranks 9th in the nation in total interceptions with ten.  Defensive backs, Garrett Davis and Terrell Williams lead the team in interceptions.  The four picks for Davis rank him fifth, nationally.  Williams, who has three, is tied for 17th in the country. 

Houston Offense
Two-thirds of the Cougars’ 52
nd ranked scoring offense consists of passing plays.  They pass for 270 yards per game, 33rd
best passing totals in the country.  Quarterback, Kyle Postma, is averaging 186 yards per game, with five touchdowns and six interceptions on the season.  Postma has started the past four games, replacing Kyle Allen in game three of the season due to Allen’s poor performance.  The Cougars also have a wild card at quarterback in utility player, D’Eriq King.  King has only taken a few snaps at quarterback, but Houston’s coaches have been quoted as saying they will use him situationally in the run game at the quarterback spot. 

Steven Dunbar and Linell Bonner are splitting catches, with Dunbar catching 47 and Bonner grabbing 45.  Bonner edges Dunbar in touchdowns, 3-1. 

Running the ball, they don’t do so well.  They average just 172 yards per game.  Despite leaning towards passing, they have scored 14 times running the ball, but have thrown just ten touchdowns.  Running back, Duke Catalon, carries most of the load in the run game, averaging 70 yards per game with seven touchdowns this year.  Postma also runs the ball some, averaging 33 yards per game. 

USF Defense
The Bulls are currently ranked 23
rd in scoring defense this season, holding their opponents to less than 19 points per game.  Against the run, they keep opponents to less than 100 yards per game, ninth best in the country.  Their passing defense is a mixed bag.  They allow a 62nd
worst 213 passing yards per game, but lead the nation in interceptions, with 16, and turnover margin, 1.86.

Linebackers, Auggie Sanchez and Nico Sawtelle, lead the team in tackles.  The duo also have a pair of interceptions apiece, with Sanchez returning his for a pick-six.  Defensive backs, Devin Abraham and Mazzi Wilkins, are tied nationally for 5th and 17th with four and three interceptions, respectively.  Defensive lineman, Bruce Hector, leads the team with four sacks.

Expectations
The numbers favor USF in this matchup, but Houston has performed well against a few decent teams.  Average USF’s season averaging in scoring and what Houston allows defensively, that gives a USF score of about 33, which fits well within their norms. Using the same method, Houston’s expected score adjusted for USF’s defense gives their score of 23 points.    

Summary
The Bulls are 10 point favorites with an over / under set at 56.  ESPN’s FPI predicts a 71.6% chance of a USF victory using their software.  The game is being televised on ESPNU, nationally, with kickoff at 3:45 PM EDT. 

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