Who: #18 / 17 USF Bulls vs. ECU Pirates
What: College football game
When: Saturday, September 30th, 2017
Where: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Why: Conference football game
The #18 / 17 University of South Florida Bulls are on the road to visit the East Carolina Pirates on Saturday. The Bulls dominate the series record, 5-1, with the only win for the Pirates coming in a 28-18 victory in 2014, a season where USF went 4-8 and ECU was ranked 19th in the country. These two teams first met in 2002, a 46-30 win for the Bulls.
USF comes into the game leading the nation with 21 straight games scoring 30 points or more, two games shy of an NCAA record. They’re 4-0 on the season, but have been very slow to start of offense in every game, before running away the game. In their last game, they beat defending conference champion, Temple, 43-7.
The Pirates have struggled this season, posting the first win of their 1-3 season against UConn on Sunday. That game was more likely a measure of how bad UConn is more than an indicator of ECU’s strength. The Pirates lost big to James Madison and were pummeled by West Virginia and Virginia Tech.
USF Offense
Senior quarterback, Quinton Flowers, leads the 21st ranked scoring offense in the country, averaging just under 41 points per game. It has been the run game, however, where they really shine. They’re in the top nine teams in the country in rushing offense, piling up 289 yards per game and 12 rushing touchdowns on the season. Darius Tice leads runners with 93 yards a game, while splitting carries with D’Ernest Johnson, who has just over 80 yards per game rushing. Tice leads the team with six rushing touchdowns, trailed by Flowers with four and Johnson with two.
When they’re not running the ball, Flowers is passing for 193 yards per game, with eight touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. That’s down a tad from his 216 passing yards each game in 2016, when he was ranked in the top ten, nationally, for total offense. The passing offense is currently ranked 85th.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads receivers in catches, twice over. He’s averaging 57 yards per game on 16 attempts, scoring two touchdowns this year. Tyre McCants has the same touchdown total with just seven catches.
ECU Defense
The Pirates have the second worst scoring defense in the country. On average, they have allowed 48 points to their opponents in each game. West Virginia scored 56 and Virginia Tech put up 64 against them in subsequent weeks. They’re 124th against the run and 129th against the pass.
Senior linebacker, Jordan Williams, leads the team in tackles, with 43. As a team, the Pirates have just four turnovers, ranking them 120th in turnover margin.
ECU Offense
American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Week, Thomas Sirk, calls the plays for the ECU offense. Sirk earned the honor after his team’s high scoring affair against UConn. In that game, he threw three touchdown passes and had completions totaling 194 yards. Outside of that game, though, he has thrown four interceptions and just one other touchdown.
Senior receiver, Davon Grayson, is the top receiver for the Pirates. He has 394 yards receiving through four games, with four touchdowns. Trevor Brown is close behind, averaging 80 yards per game with a pair of touchdowns on the season.
Five Pirates are in double digit rushing yardage, but none higher than 31 yards per game, which would be Tyshon Dye. Sirk rushes an average of 24 yards per game.
USF Defense
In 2016, the Bulls had one of the top scoring offenses in the country. At the same time, their defense was one of the worst. They’re finally a complete team, boasting a top 25 offense and defense. On scoring defense, the Bulls rank 21st, allowing just 17 points per game. They’re third in the nation in rushing offense and 43rd in passing offense, allowing 66 and 197 passing yards per game, respectively.
Senior linebacker, Auggie Sanchez, has company at the top of the tackles list. He has 22, but has sophomore linebacker, Nico Sawtelle, right on his heels with 21. Junior defensive back, Ronnie Hoggins is in the neighborhood with 19.
The Bulls have the #1 turnover margin in the country, with a margin of 2.5 and #1 in Interceptions with 12. Senior defensive back, Devin Abraham, has 3 interceptions, which is the best on the team and #2 in the country.
Expectations
This is another paper mismatch for the Bulls. Even if they allowed ECU norms to take place, they’d win 48-23, and that would mean one of the top defenses in the country allowing more points that they normally would. Expect that USF will score at least 48 points, considering this high scoring offense is averaging about as many points per game as last season, when they were 4th in the nation, maintaining their march towards breaking the NCAA record for most games scoring 30 points or more. Sirk deserves credit for a solid game against UConn, but throwing as many interceptions as he has touchdowns has to be a red flag for his team, considering USF is #1 nationally in interceptions. Expect both statistics to go up after this game. USF’s stingy defense allowed zero points to Temple in their last outing. Expect similar results against a nearly pedestrian offense at ECU. Finally, expect that USF will finally put together their first complete game of the season, posting their greatest margin of victory, thus far.
Summary
USF is a 23 point favorite at time of publishing, with the over / under set at 76, putting an estimated score around 50-26, favoring the Bulls. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, USF has an 87.8 percent chance of winning the game. Kickoff is high noon on Saturday, with television broadcast provided by CBS Sports Network, nationally.