Poll Watch: Week 5 2017

Poll Watch: Week 5 2017
USF Poll Watch Week 5 2017 All

Most teams have four games under their belt and game results, as well as statistics, are having a bit more meaning, now. Overall, the Bulls are moving into more positive territory in Week 5, after posting a dominating blowout win over Temple. Temple isn’t a football powerhouse, but USF continued their nation-leading streak of games with more than 30 points scored (21) and allowed zero points on defense. The only points scored by Temple were off a sack of USF quarterback, Quinton Flowers, whose fumble was recovered and returned for a touchdown. In this week’s rankings, all but one have positive trendlines.

As usual, the Associated Press media poll, which has been explained on USF Blog in the past, leads the way.

AP Team

1 Alabama

2 Clemson

3 Oklahoma

4 Penn St

5 USC

6 Washington

7 Georgia

8 Michigan

9 TCU

10 Wisconsin

11 Ohio St

12 Virginia Tech

13 Auburn

14 Miami FL

15 Oklahoma St

16 Washington St

17 Louisville

18 South Florida

19 San Diego St

20 Utah

21 Florida

22 Notre Dame

23 West Virginia

24 Mississippi St

25 LSU

The Bulls moved up three spots in the AP poll to #18 after several ranked teams lost. Florida, who struggled to beat Kentucky, and would have lost if the Wildcats kicker put the ball six inches to the left, dropped one spot to 21. The Gators needed a miracle touchdown pass on the literal last second of the game to beat a Tennessee team, who nearly lost to 0-5 UMass. Florida State, who lost to Alabama in Week 1 and NC State this week, dropped out of the poll. Miami is the sole team from the state of Florida ranked higher than USF. The Hurricanes have been at #14 for two weeks straight. USF is the only American Athletic Conference team currently ranked, but Memphis would be 30th based on votes and UCF would be 35th.

The other important major poll is the USA Today Amway Coaches’ Poll, whose methodology was defined on USF Blog, previously.

USA Team

1 Alabama

2 Clemson

3 Oklahoma

4 Penn St

5 USC

6 Washington

7 Michigan

8 Georgia

9 Ohio St

10 Wisconsin

11 TCU

12 Virginia Tech

13 Miami FL

14 Oklahoma St

15 Auburn

16 Washington St

17 South Florida

18 Louisville

19 Utah

20 Florida

21 San Diego St

22 LSU

23 West Virginia

24 Mississippi St

25 Florida St

USF maintains the 17th spot in the USA Today Amway Coaches’ Poll. As is the case in the AP poll, USF is the second highest ranked team from Florida, with the Hurricanes leading at #13. Unlike the AP poll, FSU has managed to stay in the top 25, despite being 0-2. Other AAC members receiving votes are would-be #29 Memphis, #33 UCF, and #40 Navy.

The CBS 130 is much happier with the Bulls after their win over Temple. USF jumps ten points in their ranking system, which was discussed on a prior edition of USF Blog , to #24.

1 Alabama Crimson Tide

2 Clemson Tigers

3 Oklahoma Sooners

4 Penn State Nittany Lions

5 Oklahoma State Cowboys

6 Southern California Trojans

7 Wisconsin Badgers

8 Washington Huskies

9 Michigan Wolverines

10 Mississippi State Bulldogs

11 Georgia Bulldogs

12 Ohio State Buckeyes

13 Virginia Tech Hokies

14 Oregon Ducks

15 Miami (Fla

16 TCU Horned Frogs

17 Auburn Tigers

18 San Diego State Aztecs

19 Vanderbilt Commodores

20 Louisville Cardinals

21 Florida State Seminoles

22 Utah Utes

23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

24 South Florida Bulls

25 Washington State Cougars

The Bulls have the honor of being the only AAC team in their top 25, but they trail San Diego State of the Mountain West Conference, who are currently 18th. That point being significant because USF does not have an automatic bid into the playoff system that replaced the BCS.

The Congrove ranking is one that, along with the two major polls, is a factor in the Massey Composite ranking, which is featured below. USF Blog has explained Congrove on previous segments.

CGV Team

1 Alabama

2 Penn St

3 Oklahoma

4 Wisconsin

5 Clemson

6 Washington

7 Virginia Tech

8 USC

9 Washington St

10 Ohio St

11 TCU

12 Georgia

13 Miami FL

14 South Florida

15 Oklahoma St

16 Wake Forest

17 Michigan

18 Georgia Tech

19 Auburn

20 San Diego St

21 Utah

22 Navy

23 Tennessee

24 Minnesota

25 Kansas St

In the Congrove ranking, the Bulls were 22nd in preseason, before dropping to 24 after their first game. In every subsequent week, they have ranked higher than they had, previously, moving up to 14th, this week. That’s the highest ranking of all the systems highlighted in this segment, to date.

The ESPN Football Power Index uses, among other factors, strength of schedule to determine the caliber of a team, which has been detailed on USF Blog, previously. Unfortunately, this system puts so much weight on how a team performs against its strength of schedule that ends up being mostly a rank of schedules. A good team with a weak schedule will always rank low with this system.

2017 Football Power Index

1 Alabama, SEC

2 OSU, Big Ten

3 Oklahoma, Big 12

4 Clemson, ACC

5 Washington, Pac-12

6 Wisconsin, Big Ten

7 Penn State, Big Ten

8 TCU, Big 12

9 Stanford, Pac-12

10 Notre Dame, FBS Indep.

11 Oklahoma State, Big 12

12 FSU, ACC

13 Georgia, SEC

14 Auburn, SEC

15 USC, Pac-12

16 Miss St, SEC

17 Michigan, Big Ten

18 Oregon, Pac-12

19 VT, ACC

20 LSU, SEC

21 NC State, ACC

22 Miami, ACC

23 Louisville, ACC

24 Washington St, Pac-12

25 Texas, Big 12

26 Duke, ACC

27 Florida, SEC

28 Kansas State, Big 12

29 UCLA, Pac-12

30 UCF, American

31 Georgia Tech, ACC

32 Texas Tech, Big 12

33 Tennessee, SEC

34 Iowa, Big Ten

35 Wake Forest, ACC

36 South Carolina, SEC

37 Texas A&M, SEC

38 UNC, ACC

39 West Virginia, Big 12

40 Kentucky, SEC

41 Northwestern, Big Ten

42 Minnesota, Big Ten

43 Indiana, Big Ten

44 Houston, American

45 Arizona, Pac-12

46 San Diego State, MW

47 USF, American

After putting up 43 points and shutting out the Temple offense, the Bulls move up just one position to #47 in this system. That’s because their strength of schedule, although moving up six spots to 77th, is so low that winning big in blowout fashion isn’t enough to compensate. Interestingly, San Diego State, the other media favorite for the at-large bid, is one spot higher than USF, even though their strength of schedule is 112th. USF’s conference mates, Houston and UCF rank higher at 44th and 30th, respectively.

The Massey Composite is one of the most important ranking systems as it combines the results of dozens of other computer and human based rankings to create one final ranking. A more detailed explanation is available on other USF Blog postings.

Rank, Team

1 Alabama

2 Clemson

3 Oklahoma

4 USC

5 Washington

6 Michigan

7 Georgia

8 Penn St

9 Ohio St

10 Wisconsin

11 TCU

12 Virginia Tech

13 Oklahoma St

14 Notre Dame

15 Miami FL

16 Mississippi St

17 Louisville

17 Washington St

19 San Diego St

20 Duke

21 Auburn

22 South Florida

23 Florida

24 Stanford

25 Minnesota

USF finally overcome the negative pull of the strength of schedule systems which have kept them low in the Massey Composite. After beginning the season at 25, they dropped to 31 and rebounded up to 22 in the following two weeks. That’s one spot above Florida and seven spots below Miami. No other AAC team makes the top 25.
USF Poll Watch Week 5 2017 Massey

Continuing as an anchor on the USF rank in the Massey composite is the Sagarin system, explained on an old USF Blog article.

1 Alabama

2 Oklahoma

3 Clemson

4 Ohio St

5 Washington

6 Wisconsin

7 Penn St

8 Oklahoma St

9 Georgia

10 Michigan

11 Notre Dame

12 Florida St

13 USC

14 Auburn

15 TCU

16 Virginia Tech

17 Mississippi St

18 Stanford

19 LSU

20 Miami FL

21 Washington St

22 Oregon

23 Louisville

24 Kansas St

25 Duke

26 Georgia Tech

27 Utah

28 Florida

29 Texas

30 NC State

31 Iowa

32 Texas A&M

33 UCF

34 Minnesota

35 Texas Tech

36 Wake Forest

37 Michigan St

38 UCLA

39 Houston

40 South Florida

The Bulls are up to 40th from 45th, last week. It’s their highest rank in this system, this season, which they began in the 50th position. UCF ends up being the highest ranked AAC team at #33, followed by Houston at 39th.